027
FXUS64 KHUN 131137
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
637 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

A storm system moving across the southern Great Plains was
spreading extensive clouds over much of the Southeast. Light
showers (mainly virga at this time) were moving to the NE over
parts of the area. Heavier showers were evident over central MS
with some thunder. This next system should bring chances of shower
activity to the Tennessee Valley starting this morning. These
showers should overspread the area from SW-NE.

Daytime heating and resultant instability should result in
isolated to scattered thunder mixed in with more widespread
showers this afternoon. Some of the storms, those occurring south
of the Tennessee River could become strong to severe, with outflow
wind gusts the main threat. With generally cloudy skies and
increasing chances for showers, high temperatures to start the
work week will be on the cooler side, warming only into the lower
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Cloudy skies with chances for showers and thunderstorms will
continue tonight, as the storm system to our west nears. Mild
conditions are forecast with lows in the low/mid 60s. Rain chances
should ramp up late tonight and on Tue, as the system brings
widespread showers, and scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Some
of the storms could become strong to severe in intensity with
wind gusts and hail the main threats. Locally heavy rains could
produce ponding of water in low spots, and a small risk of
flooding and flash flooding. Despite clouds and the rain chances,
high temperatures should rise into the mid/upper 70s. A cold front
trailing from the parent low over the Ohio Valley/Central States
should sweep across the area Tue afternoon from west to east,
helping to end the shower activity in the night. Lows Tue night
should cool into the lower 60s.

A dry period is forecast to begin on Wed with the area between
systems. With more clouds than sun, high temperatures should rise
into the mid/upper 70s and lows Wed night in the low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Sunday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

After brief upper ridging and surface high pressure that will
keep rain out of the forecast on Thursday will come what seems
like a "rinse and repeat" storm system (similar to the one
discussed above) for Friday and into Saturday. Upper ridging will
be pushed east as a trough makes its way over the Mississippi
Valley through late week. At the same time, a surface low pressure
system is shown to develop over southwestern Texas around midweek
and then traverse to the northeast towards the ArkLaTex region by
early Friday. Anticipating this system to continue its
northeastward trajectory that will take it over northern Virginia,
Delaware, and Maryland by Saturday morning. Chances of showers
and storms are forecast to increase overnight into Friday morning.
Unsettled weather will then likely persist through the weekend,
with the highest chances (60-70%) of showers and storms
anticipated Friday afternoon. While enough instability and shear
will be present for thunderstorm development Friday afternoon and
evening, the better upper dynamics and thermodynamics once again
look to be to our south (much like the storm system in the
near/short term). Overall, at this time, confidence in any severe
weather is low because of this. However, we will continue to
monitor this system in case the trajectory of the low tracks
northward (increasing the severe potential). Highs will generally
top out in the lower to mid 80s each day except for Friday (upper
70s) due to the increased coverage of showers and storms. Lows
will remain in the lower to mid 60s through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Light showers recently began over the area. With an exception of
locally heavy showers producing short-term reductions in
CIG/VSBY, VFR conditions should hold into the early evening.
Am keeping brief MVFR reductions possible from shower activity
this morning. Shower coverage should lessen this afternoon as the
first portion of a system passes to the east. A somewhat stronger
area of convection is expected in the evening and late night,
with better odds of reduced minimums due to more numerous showers
and storms. Forecaster confidence in the timing of showers, their
future placement, and intensity is low.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...RSB