Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 290438
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1138 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and windy for Friday which will elevate fire weather concerns.

- Storm chances increasing for the Sun night through Mon time
  frame with severe storm chances also increasing, especially
  for Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Water vapor imagery currently shows upper trough approaching the
Eastern Seaboard with an upper low spinning just off of the
Pacific Northwest coast. Meanwhile over the Plains, weak upper
ridging is moving-in. At the surface, weak Lee troughing is in
place with a stationary front extending across southern IA and
across northeast Nebraska.

Northwest flow aloft will transition to west and slightly
southwest as a series of upper perturbations lift out of the
Central Great Basin and out across the Central/Northern Plains.
This will allow surface low to deepen over southeast CO on Fri,
setting up a tight pressure gradient across the eastern half of
Kansas for Fri afternoon/early evening. Still looking for
sustained speeds 25-30 mph with higher gusts 40-45 mph for
areas along and especially east of the KS Turnpike. Good mixing
and downslope will boost highs on Fri into the 70s area wide
which is around 10 degrees above normal highs for time time of
year.

Weak shortwave is forecast to track across the Northern Plains on
Fri into Fri evening and will help a cold front push south tonight
and by Sat morning will extend from Northern MO through Southeast KS
and into Western OK. At the same time a more robust shortwave trough
will be approaching Central/Southern CA. As return flow continues to
increase, warm front is expected to lift north on Sat and should
setup a fairly large temp gradient across the forecast area on
Sat. By Sun afternoon, deep upper trough will extend from the
Great Basin down into northern Baja and will continue track
east through the evening hours. Low level moisture will continue
to increase across the Southern Plains on Sun with a loose
dryline retreating slightly west during the last afternoon with
a warm front remaining through Northern MO/northeast KS. The big
question on Sun is whether storms would be able to initiate
along the retreating dryline with mid/upper ridging and capping
remaining an issue. At this time, feel best chance would be
over west/southwest OK where convergence is better and moisture
deeper, which may help breach the cap. However, confidence is
low on this occurring at this time.

Currently have much higher confidence in storms developing Mon
afternoon and evening as shortwave energy moves out across the
Southern/Central Plains. Dryline is expected to surge east and
cold front will also surge southeast. Will be plenty of
instability and especially shear for severe storms Mon-Mon
evening, the main question will be with a surging cold front,
what will the storm mode be. Right now it appears areas east of
I-135 would have the highest risk of storms. Still looking for
a cool down on Tuesday as this system departs to the east.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Main concern overnight into the morning hours will be a strong
LLJ promoting LLWS area-wide through at least 12-15Z. 10 to 15-knot
are primarily southeasterly tonight, but winds are expected to
shift to southwesterly during the morning hours on Friday.

Areas along and east of the Flint Hills, including KCNU, will
experience winds during the day sustained around 20 to 25 knots
with gusts around 40 knots at times. Meanwhile, across central
Kansas, a weak frontal boundary will cause 10 to 15-knot wind to
shift from southwesterly to northwesterly Friday afternoon.
Winds should decrease across the area after 00Z to around to
below 10 knots. A strong LLJ will develop again late Friday
night, and LLWS will become a concern across southeast Kansas
(KCNU) near the end of the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Strong southwest winds will elevate grassland fire danger into
the very high category for much of the area on Friday.

Still looking for strong southwest winds to setup on Friday
afternoon and early evening over mainly the Flint Hills into
Southeast KS. Looking for sustained speeds in the 25 to 30 mph
range gusts 40-45 mph. With low level moisture continuing to
increase, RH values where the strongest winds are located, will
be around 40%. Meanwhile, west of I-135 we are looking for RH`s
of 25-35%. So the very high grassland fire danger is being
driven primarily by strong southwest winds.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ070>072-
094>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...RBL


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