National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KILM 201957
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
357 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms this evening will accompany a cold
front which will stall to our south tonight. Low pressure
developing along this front should lead to widespread rain
Sunday. High pressure will gradually build in from the northwest
bringing dry weather back to the Carolinas by Monday night and
Tuesday and lasting through much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cold front nearing our western counties and moving very slowly.
It`s slow movement will keep it roughly halfway across the area
through evening at which time it will initiate thunderstorms.
SPC has raised the areal coverage of the Marginal to include the
entire area, but there seems to be enough guidance showing a
higher likelihood in NC vs SC. Most convective indices are
already making out in SE NC boosting forecast confidence some.
Overnight convection will grow more shallow, possibly devoid of
thunder altogether especially north of the still southbound
boundary. The front will be offshore on Sunday with moisture
overrunning and an increase in channeled vorticity streaking
overhead, the end result a cloudy, much cooler day with periods
of light rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Light rain ongoing Sunday night will gradually come to an end
overnight and into Monday morning. A secondary shortwave will
approach the area during the day on Monday, sparking the
development of a weak surface low offshore. A few showers will
possible along the coast during the afternoon as dry air aloft
works its way into central NC/SC. Light showers should come to
an end by the early evening as the quick-moving trough exits
offshore.

Dry air follows the shortwave as high pressure settles overhead
on Monday night. Areas west of I-95 could drop into the upper
30s while most areas fall into the low 40s. Clouds in NE flow
may develop and keep temperatures warmer near the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Building high pressure will bring dry conditions on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Temperatures remain slightly below normal, rebounding
into the low and mid 70s. Warmer on Wednesday ahead of the next
cold front. This front will bring cooler temps for Thursday,
but transient high pressure positioned well north of the area
will keep the much cooler air far removed; highs in the low
70s. Ridging and offshore high pressure bring a warming trend on
Friday through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Wind will remain light and become increasingly variable as a
front drops into the area this afternoon. This boundary will
initiate thunderstorms that may have strong winds as they push
south and east. LBT and ILM have the best chance to see stronger
storms. Ceilings also lowering with the front, liking
descending to IFR area- wide. Stratiform rain then spreads west
to east across the area towards daybreak as the wind stabilizes
to NE as the front pushes offshore.

Extended Outlook... Restrictions possible through the weekend
due to daily shower chances from a stalled front. High pressure
building in late Mon into Tues should return dominant VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday... Southwesterly winds ahead of slowly
approaching cold front in the very near term. These light winds
will veer as the boundary approaching, turning onshore, and then
veer to the NE and stabilize on Sunday as it moves off the
coast. Diminutive wind waves and a weak E/SE swell will keep
the seas forecast capped at 2- 3 ft.

Sunday Night through Thursday Night... Northerly winds
increase behind the deepening surface low on Sunday night into
Monday morning. A few brief gusts to SCA thresholds are
possible. A secondary surface low develops on Monday, prolonging
the fetch of northerly winds. Seas will increase to 3-5 feet in
the prolonged fetch. Conditions improve on Tuesday behind the
exiting low and high pressure builds through much of next week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB/21