Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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535 FXUS61 KILN 090822 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 422 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track across the area this afternoon and evening. High pressure will briefly build in for Friday. But then another area of low pressure will pass across northern Ohio on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Weakening showers are expected to continue to diminish early this morning as a disturbance tracks to east of the area. Low pressure in Illinois early this morning will move east into the forecast area this afternoon. Showers and some thunderstorms will become more prevalent ahead of and north of the low track. Meanwhile, south of the low, expect to destabilize, although there is some uncertainty with how much. This will lead to the development of thunderstorms south of the low and trailing cold front. There will be sufficient shear for storm organization, so there could be some strong to severe thunderstorms in the southern half of the forecast area. Wind and hail will be possible and a tornado cannot be ruled out, although if winds veer south of the low, that potential will become very low. Expect a fairly substantial temperature gradient across the area with highs ranging from the lower 60s in west central Ohio to the upper 70s in northern Kentucky. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Surface low and cold front will exit the region early in the evening taking any storms with it. There could be some lingering showers with cold air advection, but these will diminish overnight. A positively tilted mid level trough will cross the region on Friday. So although surface high pressure will be nudging in, with the colder air aloft, cannot rule out some diurnal showers. It will be cooler. Lows will be closer to normal but highs on Friday will be several degrees below normal. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Fast moving low pressure will bring the likelihood for showers along with isolated thunderstorms beginning late Friday night and continuing through Saturday. Winds may gust close to 30 knots Saturday afternoon as the system pushes across the Great Lakes. A ridge of high pressure will provide tranquil weather on Sunday. The threat for showers and thunderstorms returns Monday and Tuesday when an east-west oriented boundary sags south from the Great Lakes. Showers and thunderstorms become likely on Wednesday when low pressure is forecast to track along the boundary, bringing a large area of moisture and lift to the Ohio Valley. Cooler than normal high temperatures in the 60s and lows in the 40s are forecast for Saturday under below average geopotential heights and a northwest low level flow. Highs are expected to rise back into the 70s for the rest of the period as a west to southwest flow brings normal to slightly above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... With plenty of low level moisture, do expect MVFR ceilings to develop across the region closer to 12Z. Once that occurs, MVFR ceilings will prevail through the rest of the period, although there is at least some potential for a break in the lower clouds at some point. Expect showers and perhaps some thunderstorms to develop during the day OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings will continue into Friday. IFR ceilings are not out of the question.. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...