Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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958 FXUS63 KILX 090254 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Lincoln IL 954 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible tonight through Thursday as a low pressure area and a weak surface front push through the area. - Cooler weather is on tap for the end of the week with overnight lows dipping into the 40s Thursday night through Saturday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 945 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Updated the forecast tonight to adjust the chances of showers and thunderstorms as coverage is becoming more widely scattered at late evening. Strong to severe storms raced ESE across southeast IL affecting areas along and south of highway 50 from 730-9 pm producing wind gusts of 50-60 mph with trees and power lines blown down from Xenia east to highway 45 south of Flora. Some heavy rain also reported in southeast IL with half to 1 inch of rain in about an hour from I-70 south with locally higher amounts from highway 50 south. Late evening surface map shows a 1003 mb low pressure over south central Iowa with an occluded front extending southward to another 1003 mb low pressure in central AR. Main frontal boundary was over southern/se MO into southern parts of IL, IN and Ohio with more widespread and stronger to even severe convection south of this front in much more unstable air mass south of I-64. More scattered thunderstorms, a few strong to severe yet over central and northern Iowa. Low pressure moves from south central Iowa into central IL by sunrise, keeping a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms going over central and northeast part of CWA overnight. Severe risk has mainly shifted south of CWA rest of tonight. Lows overnight range from mid 50s nw of the IL river, to the lower 60s in southeast IL. 07 && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Thursday Night) Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Showers and storms are still possible this evening across portions of the CWA, however, the strongest storms should remain south of the central IL. The only area that might see stronger to severe storms will be in southeast IL...roughly south of I-70. North of this line, some of the storms should be more isolated and could actually be embedded at times in the stratiform rain. This could pose a lightning hazard for outdoor activities. As the 500mb mid level trough rotates through the CWA on Thursday night, there is a small chance (around 20%) for showers to occur in the evening over the northern portion of the CWA...roughly along and north of I-72/Danville. Temps will be lower tomorrow as cloud cover and northwest to north winds bring slightly cooler air into the state. Auten .LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Wednesday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Relatively dry weather is expected for the weekend, though a weak trough will rotate through parts of the state with a chance of light precip along and northeast of I-74 Friday night. The next chance of precip will be the beginning of next week...Monday, and continue into the middle of next week. The overall pattern for this period will be messy with an upper level low pressure area slowly moving across the US from the plains into the eastern US. Temperatures will start off cooler for the beginning of the weekend, but then warm back into the mid to upper 70s starting on Sunday and continue through next week. Auten && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening) Issued at 645 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 An area of showers will lift ne toward I-74 in next hour or so with isolated thunderstorms possible at SPI and DEC airports where VCTS carried into mid evening. Better chance of thunderstorms this evening will be along and south of I-70. Mid level ceilings around 10k ft will come down to 4-6k ft with this convection this evening. Isolated to scattered rain showers to affect northern airports of PIA and BMI longer overnight and carried VCSH until daybreak as ceilings lower to MVFR over central IL during overnight and continue on Thu, with MVFR vsbys possible with light fog as well. Ceilings could drop further into IFR category by Thu morning with 700-900 ft expected. AS a trof axis shifts southward over central IL by early Thu afternoon, more chances of showers possible. East to SE winds around 10 kts with few gusts around 20 kts early this evening, to shift WNW to NW along I-72 and NE at PIA and BMI Thu morning. All airports see north to NNE winds 10-16 kts with gusts near 20 kts after 18-20Z Thu as trof axis shifts south of terminals. 07 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$