Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 281055
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
655 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fair weather today...winds gusting to around 20 mph this afternoon
- Dry and warmer on Friday
- Rain chances return Friday Night through Wednesday

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Today...

Despite 17 of March`s first 27 days exhibiting decidedly above/below
temperatures across the Indianapolis Area...today`s transition
towards a milder late week should finish overall near normal for
early spring.  Rather weak surface high pressure under a split H500
trough will prevail over Indiana through the short term...although a
very small disturbed area ahead of a vort in the northern portion of
the trough will meanwhile cross the Midwest.  Clear and nearly calm
conditions will be the rule early today amid very light gradient
under the ridge centered from Arkansas through the Ohio Valley.

Winds will veer slightly while increasing this morning as ample sun
eventually mixes down 15-20KT gusts from around the H850 level. High
and eventually mid cloud will also increase from west to east under
the weak warm-frontal type set-up aligned from the Quad Cities
towards Ohio.  SCT decks are the most likely coverage by late day
per a rather dry column and better mid cloud focused over northern
portions of the Midwest where better PVA from the northern trough
will be set up.  Not an overly impressive warm-advective regime with
breezy westerly flow...but the sun`s rays, equivalent to mid-
September strength, will still provide a 10-degree or so increase
from yesterday with highs expected to range from the low 50s near
Kokomo and Muncie...to around 60F from Terre Haute down to
Vincennes.

Tonight...

Winds will diminish early this evening as thermals collapse.  A
distribution of SCT to perhaps BKN cloud north of I-74 to mainly
clear skies across much of the region`s southern/southwestern realm
should be maintained through most of the overnight...as the central
CONUS` broad, zonal ridge pushes eastward into the region... holding
the modest overunning`s cloud along this axis from northern Illinois
to central Ohio.  Can not rule out a few sprinkles over the Up per
Wabash Valley under this patch, but confidence too low to include in
grids.  Light southwesterly winds sustained around 5-10 mph will
help keep readings above any level of concern with early vegetation.
Lows will range from the upper 30s across most northern counties to
around 40F south of I-70.  The normal max/min at Indianapolis
through the short term is 57/37.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Friday...

The dry weather of Thursday will be extended into Friday. Aloft the
models continue to depict weak ridging in place across the region. A
few ridge riding waves are suggested pass within the flow, but the
lower levels look to remain dry. Surface High pressure will be in
pace over the deep south, while a second high will be found north of
the Great Lakes. This will result in a cusp-like feature beginning
to set up across Central Indiana. This feature is expect to evolve
into a warm front, setting the stage for rain chances for the rest
of the forecast period. However, on Friday, minimal forcing remains
in play and forecast soundings continue to depict plenty of dry air
within the lower and middle levels. Thus we will look for increasing
high clouds through the day with Partly Sunny skies. Ongoing warm
air advection will be in play on Friday as 850mb temps rise to 6C
amid southwest flow. Thus a mild spring day will be in store with
highs in the upper 60s to around 70.

Friday Night through Tuesday...

Classic spring weather is expected during this period, with chances
for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms each day. The main focus
for the period is the previously mentioned cusp-like area within the
lower levels that will develop into a warm front draped across
Indiana on Friday Night. As this occurs, the flow aloft becomes more
zonal, with a few upper disturbances passing within the flow.
Associated with these features aloft, A surface low is expected to
pass across Indiana, following the warm front boundary on Saturday.
As the boundary lingers across the state on Sunday, another area of
low press is expected to develop over the plains on Sunday before
reaching Indiana on Monday and Monday Night. All through this period
lower level convergence is in place near the frontal boundary.
Forecast soundings through Tuesday show ample moisture available
with pwats between 0.8 and 1.4. Constant rain is not expected, but
given the available moisture and pattern, Rain chances will be
needed each day.

Stronger storms may be possible on Monday night and into Tuesday as
the pattern aloft changes at that time. A stronger upper trough is
expected to push out of the plains in Monday night before passing
across Indiana on Tuesday Night. Additional upper support will be in
place ahead of the system, adding another element that will be
favorable for precipitation. Although it is early, forecast
soundings show profiles favorable for convection with over 1100 J/KG
of CAPE.  Thus thunderstorms will be included at that time.

Wednesday...

Chances for rain will be considerably less on Wednesday. The
previous upper trough will have exited to the east while the models
show ridging building across the upper Midwest and cooler northwest
flow in place over Indiana. Forecast soundings through the day show
saturation within the mid and lower levels with ongoing cold air
advection and cyclonic flow in place. Pwats at that time are quite
lower, but given the amount of moisture still available, some wrap
around, very light showers cannot be ruled out at the moment. For
now low chance pops will be used.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 651 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Impacts:

- Light SW winds early today...will veer to 250-270 degrees this
  afternoon and gust to 16-20KT

Discussion:

VFR conditions to prevail through Friday morning.  Rather weak
surface high pressure currently aligned just to the south of central
Indiana will continue to drift southeast of the region. The split
upper trough prevailing over the eastern CONUS will allow an
embedded northern wave amid a weak warm advection/overrunning set-
up to cross mainly northern portions of the Midwest.

Clear and nearly calm conditions early today will trend to
increasing winds by late morning under a few high clouds.  Flow will
veer to 250-270 degrees early this afternoon...while sustained winds
increase to 10-14KT during 17Z-23Z, with gusts to 18-20KT at all
terminals excepting KBMG where gusts will be closer to 16KT. Winds
will diminish through sundown with 5-7KT sustained after 02Z this
evening...with flow backing slowly to southwesterly by 06Z Friday
morning.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AGM
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...AGM


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