691
FXUS63 KIWX 160838
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
438 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms with local downpours this
  afternoon into Saturday.

- Very warm Sunday into Tuesday with highs in the low to mid
  80s.

- Strong to possibly severe storms Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

A weak upper level system will move northeast and bring
additional chances for showers and storms from this afternoon
into Saturday. The environment will be similar to the one early
this week with high precipitable water values, low CAPE/instability
and low shear. Locally heavy downpours are likely, but severe
storms are not expected. A diurnal flare in the activity is
likely Friday and Saturday as daytime heating helps with some
destabilization. An upper level ridge will build into the region
early next week. Temperatures will rise much above normal in the
low to mid 80s with upper 80s possible. Given the position of
the upper ridge and the ridge strength, have cut the model blend
shower/storm chances for Monday. Otherwise, a strong upper level
system will approach Tuesday in tandem with an EML (Elevated
Mixed Layer) and should set the stage for strong to severe
storms Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

The main synoptic scale feature to monitor for aviation weather
this forecast cycle is a fairly strong upper trough lifting
northeast across the Upper Midwest. The southern Great Lakes
should receive only a glancing influence from this upper level
short wave as brunt of this forcing bypasses northern Indiana to
the north. Some better low level moisture transport will lift
across the region in advance of this short wave which could set
the stage for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening, particularly from northwest Indiana into
south central Lower Michigan. Have included a VCSH mention at
KSBN this afternoon, and slightly more delayed into this evening
at KFWA. While isolated thunderstorms are possible, confidence
is still too low for point terminal forecasts to include with
the 06Z TAFs.

In terms of cigs/vsbys, have maintained low confidence TEMPO
MVFR vsby mention at KFWA in the 09Z-12Z period with some patchy
fog potential early this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected to persist through the period with only possible
exception being in association with any isolated stronger
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Marsili