Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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322 FXUS64 KJAN 110059 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 759 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Tonight through Sunday: Dry weather is expected through the period. Mid afternoon surface analysis had the cold front nearly along the Gulf coast with a >1020mb centered over the northern Plains. This surface high will build into our CWA tonight and Saturday before shifting east of Mississippi Saturday night. With continued northwest flow aloft tonight and the surface high moving in, temperatures are expected to bottom out cooler than normal and in the 50s at most locations. As the surface high becomes centered over our CWA Saturday and a decent amount of insolation occurs, temperatures will top out close to normal in the lower 80s. Moisture will slowly increase Saturday night and Sunday as the surface high shifts east and results in return flow. By Sunday morning a closed low will be centered just east of the Four Corners region with induced shortwave ridging aloft moving over our CWA. There will be an increase in cloud cover from the southwest and the chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will return to our southwest. This increase in cloud cover and rain will hold afternoon highs slightly cooler than normal in the 70s while the remainder of the CWA tops out near normal. /22/ Sunday night through Friday: Rain chances will increase Sunday night over the whole area as the closed low shifts east over the central Plains and supports the development of a surface low over the southern Plains. This surface low is expected to track north becoming a nearly stacked low pressure system Monday. Although the potential for severe weather looks low currently, subtle shortwaves rounding the base of the closed low with help contribute to heavy rain development across our CWA. Widespread rain is expected over our CWA Monday and Monday night before tapering off from the southwest Tuesday as the low pressure system shifts east over the Ohio valley. Storm totals of two to four inches are possible between Sunday night and Tuesday with the higher amounts expected across our southern zones. Dry weather is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday evening as shortwave ridging aloft and a surface ridge from the north shift east across our region. After midnight Wednesday night rain chances will increase from the southwest again ahead of another approaching low pressure system. Models differ on the evolution of this low pressure system but widespread rain is expected across our CWA Thursday and Thursday night before tapering off from the west Friday. Storm total amounts with this system may add another one to three inches across our CWA; again with the higher amounts across our southern zones. This amount of rain will likely lead to minor river flooding but flash flooding is not anticipated at this time. /22/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 758 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites through teh period, with winds prevailing out of the north at less than 10 kts. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 58 82 63 79 / 0 0 0 10 Meridian 55 82 60 82 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 59 82 64 79 / 0 0 0 10 Hattiesburg 60 83 62 82 / 0 0 0 10 Natchez 59 82 63 77 / 0 0 0 30 Greenville 59 83 65 81 / 0 0 0 10 Greenwood 57 82 63 82 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 22/06