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000
FXUS63 KJKL 190656
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
256 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will approach tonight and pass through the area on
  Friday, bringing showers/thunderstorms for most if not all
  locations.

- Cooler and more seasonable temperatures will arrive behind the
  cold front and carry through the first part of next week.

- Areas of frost will be possible in some locations Sunday morning
  and again Monday morning.

- Another cold front is forecast for late Tuesday through
  Wednesday morning, bringing another round of rain along with a
  possible thunderstorm.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1204 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2024

Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent observation trends.
This led to minor adjustments to hourly temperatures and a
lowering of min T for some of the eastern deeper valley locations.
Convection is occurring portions of central KY and west. Guidance
and upstream trends suggest convection entering the CWA over the
next 3 to 5 hours. Enough instability may be present for gusty
winds from a cell or two overnight.

UPDATE Issued at 850 PM EDT THU APR 18 2024

Temperatures in some areas, especially eastern valley locations
were dropping off more quickly than forecast. Hourly temperature
grids were adjusted based on these trends and min temperatures
still appear on track. A stray shower cannot be completely ruled
out this evening in the Lake Cumberland vicinity per some CAM
runs, but more widespread activity will hold off until the
overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 435 PM EDT THU APR 18 2024

Surface low pressure was over the mid Mississippi Valley late
today, with a cold front trailing southwest into TX. A warm front
extended east from the low, through KY. Higher dew points are
making a comeback with passage of the warm front. Thunderstorms
are developing near the cold front and in some locations in the
warm sector in the lower Mississippi Valley. Models are in good
agreement for the low tracking east northeast to OH by Friday
morning and its cold front entering the JKL forecast area. The
leading edge of showers and thunderstorms developing to our west
and southwest makes it through eastern KY late tonight and Friday
morning. Considering the timing during the min in diurnal
instability and only modest shear, the severe weather threat will
be limited.

The cold front will be exiting to the southeast late Friday, and
cooler and drier air will start to make its way into the region
behind the front on Friday into Friday night. Clouds will
eventually clear, and that will set us up for a much cooler
night, with some valleys potentially seeing mid to upper 30s by
dawn on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 256 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2024

The period begins with the are the base of a flattened trough, with
zonal flow, that`ll slowly eject off to the east through the
overnight Saturday into Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will
continue to nudge into the region allowing for dry weather for first
part of the period. However, the area will be on the backside of an
exiting trough and cold front with CAA occurring through the early
part of next week. Surface high pressure, coupled with clear skies
and CAA, areas of near freezing temperatures and frost chances will
increase Sunday night and again Monday night.

Temperatures will be on the cooler side to start the period but as
an upper-level wave moves across Canada, upper-level flow will back
to the southwest allowing for temperatures to gradually warm through
the middle of next week. As the associated surface wave moves across
the Great Lakes, a cold front extending southwest through the Ohio
Valley will gradually approach the area for the middle of next week.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected along and head of the front
but with frontal timing expected to be late Tuesday night and into
the day Wednesday, severe thunderstorms chances look to be limited.
Ahead of the front, temperatures are forecast to climb back into the
70s before cold frontal passage lowers them back into the mid-60s
for the remainder of the week. Model confidence begins to degrade
toward the end of the period as model solutions deviate on how to
handle a system for the end of the period; therefore, opted to stick
with the NBM.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2024

Initial round of convection is moving into eastern Kentucky much
earlier than model forecasts, resulting in moving up the arrival
time for precipitation overnight. Expect VFR conditions
deteriorating to MVFR and possibly briefly IFR conditions in
heavier showers and storms through the overnight and morning
hours. Cold frontal passage will bring more prevalent IFR or low-
MVFR conditions but gradually improving as skies clear within a
few hours of frontal passage. Light south to southwest winds
outside of thunderstorms 10 kts or less will become northwest
Friday afternoon with passage of the cold front.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC