Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
299 FXUS62 KKEY 020815 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 415 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 415 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 It`s another almost wet season early morning across the Florida Keys. Temperatures are just slightly above average residing in the upper 70s across most of the island chain with dewpoints in the lower 70s. KBYX radar detects a few broken lines of shallow showers pulsing in the Straits of Florida being pushed west southwest towards the island chain. Nighttime Microphysics also notes the remnants of yesterday`s convection from mainland Florida in our Gulf waters just north of the Lower Keys. Closer to the surface, marine observation platforms along the Reef report moderate easterly breezes as they have all night. Today`s weather conditions will be much like yesterday. High pressure centers in the western North Atlantic and along the Eastern Seaboard will continue to promote moderate easterly breezes across our area. Rain chances are not as elevated as yesterday as the zone of better upper air support on the eastern side of an upper level trough has slid east. Yesterday evening`s 00z sounding also notes a good amount of dry air in the mid to upper atmosphere above 800 mb likely explaining the meager height of ongoing showers in our waters. However, CIMSS MIMIC PW does indicate more moisture upstream over the Bahamas and with wind speeds progged to increase later today, some pulsey showers will not be out of the question. Opted to keep the slightly above normal 20% for PoPs today. As the high in the western North Atlantic plays with the idea of merging with the high along the east coast, we`ll find easterly breezes fluctuating in intensity for the next several days. Moderate to fresh breezes will peak overnight and slacken during the day through this weekend. PoPs will stick near normal for this time of year through this period as current guidance seems to keep most of the deep layer moisture currently on the eastern end of Cuba outside of our area. Persistent backing flow (via model soundings) will also restrict convective growth to more of a pop up mode along boundaries from either old sea/land breezes or speed convergence. Towards the end of our forecast period, the two aforementioned highs will finish their merger and pivot back out into the western North Atlantic resulting in fresher breezes for the start of next week. && .MARINE... Issued at 415 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, multiple high pressure mergers will lead to an extensive period of easterly breezes that will generally be moderate but with fluctuations. Peaks will occur mainly during the nighttime hours, with some lulling during the daytime. Due to the influx of moisture, isolated showers are possible at some point each day. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 415 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 VFR and easterly breezes will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals this morning. Forecast soundings suggest east-northeasterlies in the lower troposphere would support an afternoon cloud line and showers, in addition to the showers currently moving west through the Atlantic-side waters. Low-level moisture will be the limiting factor, and VCSH is not included at this time. && .CLIMATE... On this date in 2014, both Key West and Marathon set warm low records of 80F. Temperature records in Key West date back to 1872, while records date back to 1950 in Marathon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 85 76 85 75 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 85 76 85 76 / 10 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JAM Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest