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000
FXUS64 KLCH 122047
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
347 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

The latest visible satellite imagery shows sunny skies across the
area, with no more than some thin and wispy cirrus streaming over
the region. Surface analysis depicts high pressure across the
area, centered over the NW Gulf, yielding light and variable
winds. Temperatures this afternoon have climbed into the upper 70s
to near 80 degrees, while dewpoints in the middle 30s to lower
40s were producing relative humidity values generally between 20
and 30 percent.

Outside of a gradual warming trend over the coming days, the
weather pattern is expected to remain benign through early next
week.

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

From tonight into the weekend, shortwave ridging aloft over TX
will gradually shift east over the region. This will maintain a dry
pattern. The surface high will slowly shift toward the FL
panhandle through Saturday, with winds trending more southerly.
Little change is anticipated through the weekend, with a modest
increase in low level moisture along with warmer temperatures
expected.

As a result, pleasant conditions and relatively seasonable
temperatures will prevail through the short term. Overnight lows
tonight will fall back to around 50 across our northern zones to
the middle 50s south, with nighttime temperatures slowly
moderating into the 60s by Monday morning. Daytime highs will
rebound back into the lower to middle 80s Saturday and Sunday
under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Dry weather is expected to continue into Monday, as the midlevel
ridge moves east over the area. Southerly winds will begin to
strengthen as surface cyclogenesis develops over the plains in
response to a mid/upper low system crossing the Rockies. Winds
aloft will trend more southwesterly, bringing an increase in
clouds. This will begin a period of what looks to be above normal
temperatures through the week.

The system aloft and its attendant surface low will continue to
deepens and lift northeast on Tuesday, with southerly winds
expected to strengthen further. Wind advisories may be needed
given the widespread elevated winds/gusts expected. While the bulk
of the energy is expected to stay well north of the area,
moisture/lift could be sufficient to produce a few showers or
isolated storms, primarily just skirting our northern zones.
Similar to yesterday, NBM PoPs remain too low to include mention
(less than 15%), with the better rain chances north of our area.

Model solutions begin to diverge quite a bit beyond Tuesday, with
the GFS maintaining a series of weak disturbances over the
area while the ECMWF shifts the mid/upper trough axis east across
the region. Thus, the GFS keeps a slightly wetter pattern over
the area whereas the ECMWF solution would signal drier conditions
through the latter part of the week. Given these differences, the
National Blend of Models remains the optimal solution with low
PoPs through midweek and slightly better rain chances returning by
Friday. As for surface features and sensible weather elements,
the NBM solution maintains a southerly wind pattern along with
above normal temperatures through the long term.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR to continue with SKC or FEW250 expected and little, if any,
fog or ground fog to reduce visibilities. Surface high pressure
centered over the region will shift slowly east through the
period, with light and variable winds trending more southerly by
Saturday morning.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Light and variable winds will persist tonight, with onshore flow
becoming reestablished on Saturday as surface high pressure moves
east. Southerly winds will strengthen by early next week as the
gradient tightens between high pressure to the east and low
pressure deepening over the plains. Exercise caution or advisory
headlines may be required during that time.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  49  82  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  56  80  62  79 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  56  83  61  82 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  56  81  64  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24