Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 250250
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
950 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Blended a little of the newer CAM guidance into inherited POP
grids which yielded a slight chance for shower development prior
to sunrise across our nwrn zones which is certainly in line with
the newer runs of high res guidance. However forecast soundings
continue to show all thunder holding off until after sunrise.
Otherwise inherited grids/zones look in good shape as is for the
night per recent obs/trends/guidance.

Zone update out shortly.
25

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Storm system to bring severe risk mainly on Monday afternoon into
Monday evening. Starting between 10 am and 1 pm for southeast
Texas and ending between 10 pm and 1 am for lower Acadiana. Prime
time for the severe potential is between 4 pm and 10 pm.

Hazards...
Enhanced Risk Potential (level 3 out of 5) for Severe Storms for
portions of east central Louisiana and northern Acadiana. 30
percent damaging straight line winds with a squall line. 10
percent significant tornado from either discrete cells or embedded
QLCS within the line.

Slight Risk Potential (level 2 out of 5) for Severe Storms for
the remainder of the forecast area. 15 percent damaging straight
line winds with a squall line. 5 percent tornado from either
discrete cells or embedded QLCS within the line.

Marginal Risk Potential (level 1 out of 4) for Excessive Rainfall
leading to flooding. Mainly for high rainfall rates between 1 and
2 inches per hour in the strong storms that may lead to urban
street flooding or low lying poor drainage areas.

Wind Advisory for gradient non-thunderstorm southerly winds
between 20 and 25 mph with gusts to between 35 and 45 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

As an upper level disturbance moves across the Rockies it will
help intensify a surface low over the Plains as it moves eastward
tonight and Monday. This system will push a cold front across the
forecast area on Monday evening.

As the surface low/storm system intensifies, low level jet will
also increase to between 45 and 50 knots on Monday. This will
greatly increase Gulf moisture over the forecast area with PWAT
values between 1.5 and 1.75 inches which is well over the 90th
percentile of SPC climo and near max moving averages.

Late tonight into Monday morning, a line of thunderstorms moving
in form north and central Texas will be weakening as it reaches
southeast Texas by mid to late morning. The line is expected to
re-intensify as it moves toward and across the Sabine Basin into
western Louisiana early Monday afternoon as instability increases
with CAPE values over 500 j/kg and nearing or exceeding 1000 j/kg.
Also, mid level jet streak over 70 knots is expected to catch up
to line. Increasing shear values with 0-3km over 45 knots and also
increasing lift to help give the line of thunderstorms an extra
kick as they move further east into Acadiana.

Somewhat of a cap is expected ahead of the line, however, if any
discrete cells can get going they will have the likelihood of
rotating with some tornado potential.

The main severe threat is expected with the line itself and with
very good wind dynamics, damaging straight line winds from bowing
features will be the main concern, although embedded spin ups
along the line can not be ruled out, especially since 0-1km
helicity values are progged to be over 300 m2s2. Favorable mid
level lapse rates will also bring about a hail risk.

The system is expected to be pretty progressive cutting down on
widespread excessive rainfall. However, with high moisture content
and 85H-70H southerly winds becoming parallel to the front and to
the 85H-70H theta-e ridge, some periods of training of the strong
cells may occur that will produce high rain rates in the 1 to 2
inch per hour range.

The cold front is expected to move through the area on Monday
evening into the overnight bringing in much drier and cooler air.
Unseasonably cooler conditions, especially at night will linger
into Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Rua

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

A quiet and steady longterm period is expected with surface high
pressure acting as the primary weather-driver through the period. On
Wednesday, a cold front is departing and high pressure developing
over the central Plains states. A few clouds will be possible under
passing trough aloft, but otherwise expect dry weather. The surface
high moves overhead Thursday and Friday continuing the run of quiet
weather over the end of the work week.

Saturday and Sunday will see the high shift eastward into north
Florida. The resulting southerly flow and rising heights aloft over
the northwest Gulf working together to largely increase temperatures
and cloud cover into next weekend.

Temperatures at the start of the longterm period will fall just
short of seasonal normals within the cold front airmass. Slow
modification of the airmass takes place with a brief return to climo
normals Friday before stout warming above normal Saturday and Sunday.

11/Calhoun

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

A storm system will gather strength over the Plains tonight and
Monday. This will further increase southerly winds and increase
moisture. Clouds will increase with MVFR ceilings at KBPT/KLCH
spreading to the east at all terminals during the night. Showers
will increase during the morning hours at KBPT/KLCH/KAEX to add
VCSH to the forecast after 25/15z. Thunderstorm activity will
increase further ahead of a cold front beyond the forecast period
on Monday afternoon.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Pressure gradient will be increasing across the northwest Gulf
tonight as low pressure deepens over the Plains east of the
Rockies. Low level jet over 40 knots will develop with some of
these winds working down to surface in occasional gusts. Sustained
winds will be in the 20 to 25 knot range, and seas building up to
10 feet over the outer waters. All this means is that a Small
Craft Advisory will be in effect from tonight into Monday
afternoon.

The strong onshore flow will increase tide levels to about a foot
to a foot and a half above astronomical levels. However, the
actual tide levels are not progged to reach above 1.5 mean higher
high water and therefore, a coastal flood advisory was not issued.

A cold front will move across during the evening hours on Monday.
Ahead of the front a line of strong storms will be possible with
stronger winds, frequent cloud to water lightning, and heavy
rainfall reducing visibilities.

Behind the front, drier air moving in will end shower activity
with a modest offshore flow developing.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  62  75  52  71 /   0  90  30   0
LCH  65  76  56  75 /   0  90  20   0
LFT  66  77  61  79 /   0  80  60   0
BPT  66  77  53  76 /  10  80   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ027>033-044-
     045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 4 PM CDT Monday for TXZ180-201-
     259>262-515-516-615-616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Monday for GMZ430-450-470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ432-435-436-
     452-455-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...07


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