088
FXUS64 KLIX 300431 AAC
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1131 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...NEW AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A very interesting shift this evening with a wake low or maybe
even two that developed across our region this afternoon and
evening. First was a weaker low behind the rain shield this
afternoon across south central LA with gusty winds for BTR. Then
another maybe developed over or just west of the MS Sound. With
time winds have dropped in the wake of the wake low out west...so
trimmed up the Gale headlines as well as the wind advisory. Kept
the MS Gulf Coast in the Adv and respective Gale warning based on
obs. The low should continue to migrate into MOB`s waters, but
still over the last hour PQL gusted to 39kt. The good news is the
strongest winds are migrating with the low downstream and we hope
to take care of all the ongoing headlines over the next hour or
two, especially the landbased headlines. (Frye)

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A line of storms moved through our area this afternoon, and a wake
low developed on the backside. As a result, short-term enhanced
winds 25-35mph with frequent gusts up to 40-45mph are possible
through 1AM CT. These enhanced winds will subside when the low moves
eastward out of our area late tonight into tomorrow morning. A
wind advisory is in effect for the entire land area as this
enhanced low pressure moves eastward. Secure any tents and loose
items and be cautious if driving on elevated roadways.

Additionally, coastal flooding is ongoing for the MS
sound areas with high tide expected in the next couple of hours. A
coastal flood advisory is in effect until 7PM this evening. As
winds shift westerly tonight, the impacts will subside and
tomorrow`s high tide is forecast to be around 3ft, which should
not have impacts, based on local thresholds. We do not expect
coastal flooding issues to continue beyond tonight.

Tomorrow morning through Wednesday morning, westerly shifting to
southerly winds will help to keep humidity a little lower for the
morning hours, but reintroduce moisture for the afternoon and
evening hours. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the low to
mid 80s with lows in the mid 60s. Looking at the models, rain is
not expected tomorrow. MSW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Generally in the long term forecast, conditions will be fairly dry
Wednesday through the end of the week as several shortwave systems
approach central Louisiana before being pulled back northwestward
before reaching our area. There is a system at the end of the week
on Friday, which could bring some rainfall to our area, but it
would mostly be for our northern areas. The details surrounding
this system, like amounts and strength, are still very uncertain
and it may slide north of our area completely. We will be
monitoring for changes as these systems develop over the next
week. MSW

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Low stratus may begin to develop during the overnight hours
limiting CIGs to MVFR respectively. By sunrise or perhaps a bit
before, VIS issues become a problem for terminals along and north
of the I10/12 corridor (Although HUM and MSY will also have the
potential for lower VIS). IFR conditions and perhaps lower at
times cannot be ruled out with the low stratus and/or fog
potential. This will lift pretty quickly after sunrise leading to
VFR conditions and rather light and variable winds on Tuesday.
(Frye)


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

As the line of storms moved through this afternoon, a wake low
developed and is moving across our area. As a result, short term
enhanced winds are expected through 1AM CT tonight. Generally,
southeast winds 35-45kts with locally higher gusts are possible
and a Gale Warning has been issued for all of our marine areas.
Once the higher winds have subsided, westerly winds and moderate
winds (10-15kts) will prevail Tuesday. Southeasterly moderate
(10-15kts) winds and benign marine conditions will be in place for
the rest of the forecast period. MSW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  61  84  61 /  90  20   0   0
BTR  82  66  87  67 /  90  20  10   0
ASD  83  64  86  65 /  90  40  10   0
MSY  83  67  85  70 /  90  30  20   0
GPT  81  66  83  66 /  80  50  10   0
PQL  83  66  85  63 /  60  50  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ532-536-538-555-557-
     575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ536-538-555-557-575-
     577.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RDF
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...MSW