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000
FXUS64 KLUB 091559
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1059 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

The best chances of any additional severe thunderstorms will be
early this morning. The slow moving closed off low was still located
well to the west of the region in southern Arizona. An upper level
short wave was present in water vapor imagery that models look to be
picking up. This short wave is associated with a 100kt or so jet
streak nosing its way into West Texas. Strong height falls will
continue to spread over the region through the morning hours
creating substantial large scale lift. This large scale lift will be
supplemented by strong moist isentropic ascent in the lower levels
of the atmosphere. However, because the surface front is well south
of the region, this convection will all be elevated. Instability
will be quite strong this morning with the strong warm air
advection. Lifting parcels from around 850-750mb will continue to
yield instability values around 1500-2000 J/kg with little to no
CIN. Steep lapse rates will contribute to the high levels of
elevated instability. Additionally, the bulk of this instability
will be confined to the southern half of the FA. As the day
progresses, instability will wane as the atmospheric column becomes
increasingly saturated. Some thunder will still be possible after
this morning but chances will decrease due to the more moist
environment. A heavy rain threat will exist as the column becomes
increasingly saturated leading to more efficient warm rain
processes. The bulk of the precipitation chances from this afternoon
onward will be from the strong deformation area within this upper
low as it moves from Far West Texas into the Permian Basin. Models
have still not completely resolved where the maximum deformation
bands will set up but look to favor the northern half of the FA
peaking from 18Z through roughly 06Z. Low stratus for much if not
all of the day today along with easterly low level winds will keep
temperatures well below seasonal averages. Most areas on the caprock
may struggle to get out of the 40s with mostly 50s off the caprock.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

The closed low bringing showers and storms overnight is more
progressive than previously progged. Rain shield on the back side of
the system by tomorrow morning will favor the southern Texas
Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains before exiting entirely to the
east by Wednesday afternoon. North surface winds and low clouds may
result in some lingering drizzle into the afternoon the farther
north you go in our forecast area. We eventually begin to clear out
Wednesday night as ridging builds in from the west. Highs on
Thursday may be warmer than currently forecast if rainfall totals
are lower than forecasted today and tonight, but by Friday and the
weekend we warm back up nicely into 80s with plenty of sunshine.
Extended guidance hints at the potential for a progressive Pacific
system bringing rain chances again sometime in the first half of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1053 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Update: Prevailed TSRA through the TAF period at all sites. While
there may be a brief lull in thunderstorm activity early this
afternoon, storms are expected to redevelop thereafter and
continue well into the evening. CIGs/VIS will likely fluctuate
between VFR/MVFR, however may drop further should a storm moves
directly over the terminal. Gusty northeast winds will continue.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...19