Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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636 FXUS64 KLZK 070515 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1215 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Some pulse, relatively short lived convection will be possible across southern parts of the state this afternoon/evening with some northward propagation possible. Other than locally heavy downpours, an isolated storm or two may be able to briefly produce gusty winds and hail. Attention will be to the west of the state this evening and tonight as conditions remain primed for widespread severe weather across portions of OK/KS. Severe storms that develop from central into northern parts of OK this evening are expected to eventually merge into a robust line and head toward W/NW Arkansas. This line of storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, torrential downpours and a few tornadoes. Timing for this activity to reach NW Arkansas looks most likely between 12-2 AM with a continued eastward progression through the early morning hours. Latest CAMs continue to indicate a gradual weakening of activity through 7-8 AM with the northern half of the state most likely to see TS activity. Lowest confidence for early morning precip lies along a corridor from west central to central parts of the state. The southern extent of the line of storms may impact these areas, but that remains uncertain. Precip will depart by noon with little if any additional showers and storms expected during the afternoon/evening hours on Tuesday. Most of the state will see highs top out in the 80s F Tue afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 To begin the period, a strong storm system is expected to impact the natural state...By Wednesday, Arkansas is expected to be located within the warm sector of this system with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s and air temps in the 80s to lower 90s. With high wind shear and high instability over the region, the chance for severe weather looks likely with this system. All severe weather modes will be possible (tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail). By Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning...the front will begin to move through the state with strong to severe thunderstorms possible along and ahead of the front. Any discrete cells ahead of the main line with pose a greater tornado risk. The line itself will pose a greater damaging straight-line wind threat with quick spin up tornadoes possible. Large hail is also a concern late Wednesday. Please remain weather aware Wednesday as the threat for severe weather appears likely across much of the state. Changes to the forecast are possible so continue to check back for the latest updates. QPF values are expected to be highest across central and eastern Arkansas in the long term. These areas could see anywhere from one to two inches...elsewhere, locations could see up to an inch with the least amounts expected across northwestern Arkansas. Temperatures will be warmest head of the cold front on Wednesday with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Post frontal passage...temperatures will begin to feel more comfortable with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 A line of convection in NE OK and SW MO will continue moving east overnight...impacting the NRN terminals in the next few hrs...and towards dawn further south in the central sections. Rain may hold off entirely across the SE. Once this activity moves out...expect dominant VFR conditions for Tue in the wake of this morning convection. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 67 86 60 81 / 10 60 70 10 Camden AR 70 89 66 84 / 30 20 70 30 Harrison AR 60 81 53 76 / 0 60 30 10 Hot Springs AR 66 86 62 83 / 20 40 70 20 Little Rock AR 70 87 65 84 / 30 40 80 20 Monticello AR 73 90 69 85 / 10 20 70 30 Mount Ida AR 65 85 60 82 / 20 50 60 20 Mountain Home AR 60 84 55 77 / 0 70 40 10 Newport AR 67 86 62 81 / 20 60 80 10 Pine Bluff AR 71 88 67 83 / 20 30 80 20 Russellville AR 65 84 58 82 / 10 50 50 10 Searcy AR 67 86 62 82 / 20 50 80 20 Stuttgart AR 71 87 67 82 / 30 40 90 20 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....73 AVIATION...62