171
FXUS64 KMAF 281936
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
236 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

It`s quite the quiescent afternoon out there today, with
temperatures hovering in the 70s and lower 80s for many, around 5 to
10 degrees below normal for late April. A light westerly breeze
continues on the wake of yesterday and last night`s departing
trough, which has maintained a negative tilt as it swings across the
plains, shunting moisture (and severe weather) toward East Texas
and the Lower Mississippi Valley. Locally, pleasant, dry conditions
will continue, with lows tonight in the 50s for most, with 40s north
and in the mountains, and lower 60s along the Rio Grande. Another
pleasant day is ahead for Monday, albeit with warming temperatures
thanks to the development of weak lee surface trough to the north of
the region that will maintain westerly downslope flow. Highs Monday
afternoon are progged to top out a few degrees above normal,
reaching the middle to upper 80s for most, with 90s along the Pecos
and Rio Grande Valleys. As winds shift to the south and southeast
and return flow commences Monday night with the return of the low-
level jet, the increase in moisture will yield an increase in low
temperatures, which will range from the 50s west to 60s east.

JP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The main feature in the long term will be a large upper level trough
moving across Central CONUS which will shoot a cold front down to
the area late in the week. Before this, however, a disturbance
moving across Texas Tuesday evening may initiate a few storms across
the eastern Permian Basin, but moisture will be fairly limited and
not much in the way of rain is expected. As this moves off, weak
ridging sets up over West Texas and southerly surface flow in
response to lee troughing will usher in low level moisture, helping
to sharpen the dryline both Wednesday and Thursday. As is typical
this time of year, some storms may develop off the dryline in the
afternoon and early evenings, although instability will be lacking
both days for more organized storms. Regardless, lightning and gusty
winds will always remain a threat, so if you have outdoor plans,
prepare to take shelter indoors if thunderstorms do develop.
Temperatures through Thursday look to be warm in the 80s to low 90s
with a thermal ridge axis setting up across far West Texas and warm
southerly winds pushing temperatures above normal for early May.
This all changes Friday as the foretold cold front pushes down on
the heels of the upper level trough, and some places may see highs
fall to the 70s Friday and through the weekend. Depending on where
the front stalls up, additional rounds of showers/storms will be
possible through the weekend.

-Zuber

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. West-northwest
winds today will shift to the south-southeast tonight, before
returning to the west on Monday. Aside from some intermittent
gusts this afternoon, winds will be light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               54  88  61  91 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 52  86  53  93 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   59  92  66  93 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            56  89  62  94 /   0   0   0  20
Guadalupe Pass           52  77  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    49  84  53  90 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    44  83  47  88 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     54  88  62  91 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   56  87  63  92 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     52  89  59  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....88
AVIATION...84