411
ACUS11 KWNS 042048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042047
TXZ000-NMZ000-042245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0631
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024

Areas affected...Southwest Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 183...184...

Valid 042047Z - 042245Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 183, 184 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across much of severe
thunderstorm watch 183 and tornado watch 184 over west/southwest
Texas. The greatest severe weather potential will likely be focused
along and north of the I-10 corridor for the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...20 UTC surface observations and visible/radar imagery
continue to show a cold front migrating south across western TX into
a moderately to strongly buoyant air mass. Towering cumulus denoting
substantial lift is noted along the boundary, which will maintain
the potential for additional thunderstorm development heading into
the late afternoon hours. Just behind/along the front, a
well-organized supercell over Winkler County, TX appears to be
displaced slightly to the cool side of the boundary.
Although this cell may be slightly undercut by the front,
temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s may still support sufficient
surface-based buoyancy based on RAP forecast soundings.
Northeasterly surface winds will help elongate low-level hodographs,
promoting favorable helicity for storm organization and large/very
large hail production and some tornado threat as the cell tracks
east.

Ahead of the front, discrete supercells that initiated off of the
Davis Mountains continue to mature and become better organized as
they migrate deeper into the warm sector. Daytime heating combined
with elongating deep-layer hodographs ahead of an approaching upper
disturbance will promote an increasingly favorable environment for
severe convection. Consequently, further intensification of these
cells is anticipated in the coming hours with the potential for very
large hail (2-4 inches in diameter) and tornadoes. The expectation
for the next couple of hours is that the greatest severe threat will
be associated with (and downstream of) both the post-frontal Winkler
county supercell and the open warm sector convection.

Further to the northeast closer to the I-20 corridor (Big Country),
clustered convection developing along the front will pose a severe
hail risk, but the potential for destructive storm interactions may
modulate the overall severe threat.

..Moore.. 05/04/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30390357 30950391 31470394 32050371 32270342 32530249
            32699954 32589892 32139876 31599886 30939921 30479986
            30300061 29880146 29870211 29990268 30110316 30390357