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000
ACUS11 KWNS 172224
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172223
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-180000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0476
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0523 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Areas affected...portions of eastern OH...western PA...and northern
WV

Concerning...Tornado Watch 122...123...

Valid 172223Z - 180000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 122, 123 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe risk continues across WW122 and WW123. Damaging
winds, hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible. A local
extension has been coordinated on the eastern edge of WW123.

DISCUSSION...As of 2215 UTC, regional radar analysis showed an
ongoing cluster of severe storms over east-central OH. A mixed mode
of line segments and supercellular elements has been noted with
storms thus far owing to moderate buoyancy and 45-50 kt of effective
shear. The environment downstream is less moist (low to mid 50s F
dewpoints), but steep low-level lapse rates and ~500 J/kg of MLCAPE
will continue to support storm organization into western PA and
northern WV. With the mixed mode and drier surface conditions,
damaging wind gusts appear the most likely. Though, long hodographs
suggest hail and a a couple of tornadoes will also remain possible
with the more persistent supercells.

Recent radar and hi-res model trends suggest the southern portions
of the ongoing cluster are most likely to maintain intensity over
the next couple of hours. Additional discrete development has also
been noted farther east ahead of these storms. Given the potential
for the severe risk to extend into western PA this evening, a local
extension of WW123 eastward has being coordinated.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 04/17/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   39507983 39168077 39128182 39248275 39428356 39668334
            40128262 40778202 41218172 41588164 41878106 42048024
            41987964 41887943 41787925 41657903 41047893 40517896
            39937944 39507983