206
FXUS64 KMEG 260254
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
954 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 939 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

A stationary surface front is situated across central MS into
southern AR this evening. Meanwhile, an elevated warm front is
lifting northeast and a weak mid-level shortwave trough is moving
through the upper ridge over the region. These features are
combining to generate a band of showers across the northern parts
of the Mid-South. Made some adjustments to continue precip chances
for a few more hours as latest radar imagery shows light showers
as far south as Poinsett County. Precip will gradually taper off
after midnight. Saturday looks mainly dry and increasingly warm
and more humid as the stationary front lifts north as a warm front
during the morning and southerly winds develop. Showers and a few
storms will begin to threaten NE AR late in the day.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible
this evening, mainly to the north of Memphis ahead of a slow
moving warm front. After the warm front moves north of the Mid-
South, warmer and more humid conditions will spread into the
region on Friday and continue through the weekend. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected over eastern Arkansas and
the Missouri bootheel for Friday and Saturday. Thunderstorms will
become more widespread across the entire Midsouth Sunday night
through Tuesday, as a Pacific cold front approaches the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Skies are cloudy across southern sections of the Mid-South with
mostly sunny skies over the remainder of the region. Temperatures
this afternoon are in the 60s to around 70 degrees. A large area
of showers cover much of east Arkansas, southwest Tennessee and
north Mississippi. All of this activity is north of slow moving
warm front which extends across extreme southern Arkansas and into
central Mississippi.

As the warm front lifts north into north Mississippi tonight, the
area of showers and isolated thunderstorms will move north into
northeast Arkansas and west Tennessee. Temperatures will remain
near normal tonight with lows from the mid 50s to lower 60s.

On Friday, the warm front continues to move north into the Mid-
Mississippi Valley, bringing an end to the threat of rain for
areas east of the Mississippi River. Behind the warm front, warmer
and more humid air moves into the region. Temperatures will be
some 10 to 15 degrees warmer than today with highs in the low to
mid 80s. A frontal boundary will stall out across the central and
southern Plains by Friday evening. Thunderstorms are expected to
form ahead of the front with some the activity reaching areas of
the Mid-South west of the Mississippi River for Friday night and
Saturday. Most areas should see dry weather for Saturday night
through Sunday morning as the thunderstorms that develop over the
southern Plains on Saturday are not expected to reach the Mid-
South.

By Sunday, the cold front will begin to move slowly east reaching
western Arkansas by Monday and into the Mid-South on Tuesday. As
the front gets closer to the region, showers and thunderstorms
will increase in coverage from west to east. Rainfall could become
heavy across portions of the Mid-South west of the Mississippi
River for Sunday night into Monday. Any threat of severe weather
should be confined to areas west of the Mid-South across central
and western Arkansas. With extensive cloud cover and rain
expected on Monday, temperatures will be cooler.

Once the cold front moves through the region, dry weather is
expected for Tuesday night. Warmer weather returns to the region
for Wednesday with a few thunderstorms possible ahead of an upper
level disturbance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 657 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

As a warm front continues to lift north over the airspace, a swath
of showers will intermittently affect MKL and JBR over the next
few hours. Ceilings along this boundary are around 5 kft AGL and
no lightning is expected so aviation impacts will be minimal. A
cold front will approach tomorrow, increasing southerly winds to
10-15 kts with gusts approaching 25-30 kts. Another round of
precip is expected late in the period after 00Z Saturday, though
the thunder potential is a bit more uncertain given the trend
toward less instability at the diurnal minimum. A midlevel cloud
deck between 5-10 kft looks to persist through the period
areawide.

CAD

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...CAD