367
FXUS62 KMFL 301112
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
712 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A mid level shortwave trough will work its way through the South
Florida region today and Wednesday. Modest moisture advection will
take place as surface flow continues to veer slightly further
southeasterly. Therefore, chances for showers do increase in this
mid-week period as a result of the trough and moisture advection
to around 30-40% PoPs, but the overall pattern and thermodynamic
profile will still be semi- stable as dry air in the mid-levels
lowers the instability in the region. Thus, showers are expected
to be shallow and scattered with very low thunderstorm chances as
this disturbance pushes through. However, there will still be an
isolated chance for a storm or two due to sea and gulf breeze
development that push inland with highest chances for this being
for interior areas.

Temperatures for the next two days will mostly be in the mid to
upper 80s across South Florida, although some east coast locations
will top out in the low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 301 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Weak surface high pressure will be situated in the western Atlantic
for the long term period, which will lead to consistent easterly
flow near the surface. Modest moisture advection and pooling will
occur as well, allowing for slight chances for showers every day
through the period. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as
well, but will be few and far between since the local air mass
will still be semi-stable. Showers and isolated storms could be
enhanced further by daily gulf and sea breezes, but overall not
expecting widespread activity since there are only occasional
impulses of vorticity advecting through the area and no deep areas
of low pressure.

Temperatures will peak in the 80s with lower 80s along the Atlantic
coast and upper 80s across Southwest Florida. The overnight low
will be in the 60s except for lower to mid 70s across the east
coast metro areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 709 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

SCT showers will result in locally heavy rain along with sub VFR
ceilings and Visbys today. SE winds increasing to 10-15 kts from
late morning through the afternoon, although variable winds are
briefly possible around convection. A westerly Gulf breeze is
expected after 18Z at APF.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Marine conditions will continue to improve across the local
waters for the next few days as winds and seas continue to diminsh.
A moderate southeasterly breeze will be present with seas of 2-4
feet in the Atlantic through the middle of the week. These seas
will continue to lower entering the late week period while Gulf
seas will be at 2 feet or less. There will be chances for
scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday and
Wednesday which could create locally chaotic seas at times.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A high risk of rip currents will linger across the Atlantic
beaches through mid week. Conditions may start to improve towards
the end of the week as onshore flow decreases, however, the rip
current risk may potentially remain elevated during this time
frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            84  73  86  72 /  50  40  40  20
West Kendall     84  71  85  71 /  50  40  30  20
Opa-Locka        84  73  86  72 /  50  40  30  20
Homestead        83  71  83  71 /  40  40  30  20
Fort Lauderdale  82  73  85  74 /  50  40  30  20
N Ft Lauderdale  83  72  85  72 /  50  40  30  20
Pembroke Pines   83  73  86  72 /  50  40  30  20
West Palm Beach  82  70  86  70 /  40  30  30  20
Boca Raton       82  72  86  72 /  50  40  30  20
Naples           85  70  85  71 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...CMF