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000
FNUS73 KMKX 210923
FWSMKX

Spot Forecast for Happy Hill Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
423 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on April 21.

Please contact the National Weather Service if conditions become
unrepresentative or if you have questions/concerns about this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Modest northwest winds are expected today, with deep mixing heights
to around 7-8kft by mid afternoon.  RH is expected to fall to around 25
percent.  The deep mixing combined with winds will provide excellent
smoke dispersion today.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Temperature.........46 at ignition...Max 58.
RH..................45 percent at ignition...Min 26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northwest at 8 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Northwest winds 8 to 12
                    mph.
Mixing height.......4200 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 7600 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 18 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent /66700 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /144500 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........1   7   13  19  22  25  29  22
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............46  49  51  53  54  57  57  57
RH..............45  39  36  31  30  27  28  28
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..8   9   10  11  11  11  11  11
20 FT wind gust.14  14  16  16  17  17  17  16
Mix hgt (kft)...4.2 5.0 5.7 6.4 7.0 7.4 7.6 6.3
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.18  20  20  21  21  21  22  22
Haines index....4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100067  86  97  115 126 133 145 120

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Temperature.........Min 37.
RH..................Max 70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 9 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 6 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 21 mph decreasing to 9 to 10 mph in
                    the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (87500 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2800 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........16  10  7   5   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............55  53  50  46  45  43  43  41  40  39  39  38
RH..............30  32  39  47  51  53  55  59  62  64  64  67
20 FT wind dir..NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..9   8   6   6   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.14  12  10  8   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...4.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW
Transp wind spd.21  13  12  9   9   9   10  10  10  10  10  10
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100088  8   5   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers late in the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 64.
RH..................Min 29 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 15 mph with gusts to
                    around 21 mph increasing to around 16 mph with
                    gusts to around 25 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 17 mph increasing to 22 to 31
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (102900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (96600
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........3   5   11  17  24  32  39  47  50  54  57  68
Weather cov.....                                            SCH
Weather type....                                            RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............38  39  44  49  54  57  59  60  62  62  62  61
RH..............67  64  55  48  41  35  32  31  30  30  31  32
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..6   6   7   8   10  12  14  15  16  16  16  16
20 FT wind gust.7   8   11  14  17  18  20  21  23  24  25  25
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.6 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 3.9
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.10  12  13  17  22  24  26  29  30  30  31  29
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/10003   4   7   20  50  84  103 124 129 130 136 97

$$
Forecaster...Boxell
Requested by...Caleb Klima
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411545.0/MKX
.DELDT 04/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL caleb.klima@tnc.org