817
FNUS73 KMKX 061020
FWSMKX

Spot Forecast for Trolly Line Rx Burn...WDNR
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
520 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on May 06.

Please contact the National Weather Service if conditions become
unrepresentative or if you have questions/concerns about this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Minimum humidities near 45 percent are forecast under mostly sunny
skies this afternoon. Given the mostly clear skies in place
locally, minimum humidities could drop as low as 35-40 percent if
surface temperatures rise faster than currently forecast. Mixing
heights near 1000 ft AGL are forecast at ignition time, with
improvements to near 3500 ft AGL expected by this afternoon.
Transport winds will be out of the east-southeast, with readings
generally expected to hold between 10-15 MPH. Locally higher gusts
to 20 MPH are possible. The aforementioned mixing heights and
winds will translate to poor smoke dispersal conditions at
ignition time, followed by improvements to good categories this
afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Temperature.........57 at ignition...Max 68.
RH..................59 percent at ignition...Min 46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds east at 6 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Southeast winds 6 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 21 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 3400 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /10000 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /51800 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........4   2   2   3   3   3   2   2   3
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............57  60  62  64  65  66  67  67  68
RH..............59  55  53  52  52  50  47  47  46
20 FT wind dir..E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..6   7   8   9   9   10  10  10  9
20 FT wind gust.10  12  13  14  14  16  17  17  16
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.2 2.8
Transp wind dir.E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.10  13  15  16  16  17  17  18  18
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100010  16  27  38  44  51  51  52  45

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Temperature.........Min 47.
RH..................Max 77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 7 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 13 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (33100 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (4900 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........4   4   7   10  13  12  10  9   14  18  23  35
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............66  64  59  54  52  51  51  51  51  49  49  49
RH..............46  49  57  66  72  75  73  74  74  76  77  74
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..9   8   8   7   8   8   8   9   10  10  11  12
20 FT wind gust.14  14  13  13  13  13  13  14  14  14  16  17
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.SE  E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.18  14  13  13  14  16  16  18  20  20  20  20
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/100033  9   5   5   5   6   7   8   9   9   10  10

$$
Forecaster...Quigley
Requested by...Andrew Krsnich
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413238.0/MKX
.DELDT 05/06/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Andrew.Krsnich@Wisconsin.gov