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000
FXUS63 KMPX 091758
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1258 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs will rebound into the 50s and 60s, with 70s likely this
  weekend.

- Chance for showers Wednesday afternoon to Wednesday night with
  a better chance on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

With the nearly filled low pressure system shifted mostly off to our
northeast, the last of the lingering showers remain over the Twin
Cities metro and the MN/WI border early this morning. These showers
will continue to slowly push northeast, likely weakening, before
also leaving our forecast area this morning. Skies have begun to
partially clear in western MN in the wake of this system. (Though,
some areas of fog are expected over central MN this morning with the
residual moisture.) This general clearing will progress from west to
east throughout today, giving us some much needed sun. (The day
after the solar eclipse, of course.) Temperatures should be pleasant
with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Did add some 15-30% PoPs
for this afternoon (mainly in eastern MN and western WI) for the
slight chance of pop-up showers/thundershowers underneath the
cyclonic upper-level flow. Forecast soundings also support this
possibility with non-zero surface based CAPE and minimal capping. A
chilled but pleasant Tuesday night will follow with clear skies and
lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs will climb into the mid to
upper 60s Wednesday as a lobe of 850 hPa thermal ridging moves
overhead.

Another chance for showers and thunderstorms exists across MN
Wednesday afternoon as a shortwave approaches from the west.
However, rain chances increase Wednesday night through Thursday as
forecast models show said shortwave interacting with a synoptic
cyclone moving northeast thru the Midwest. This should cause
additional rain to form on the northwestern quadrant of the cyclone
and spread over our WI counties, if not most of eastern MN also,
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. This wave interaction will
also work to deepen the cyclone, increasing the pressure gradient
across our region and making northwesterly winds quite breezy
Thursday into Thursday night. Perhaps not as breezy as the NBM
originally suggested but after looking at model fields and top of
the channel winds in forecast soundings, still have gusts reaching
or exceeding 30 knots across most of our western and southern MN
counties.

The cyclone will move off to the northeast by Friday leaving clear
skies and mild temperatures (highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s).
However, a warm-up looks likely for the weekend. An upper-level
ridge from the western CONUS, though while flattening, will become
more centered over the central CONUS as strong 850 hPa thermal
ridging advances northeast into the Northern Plains. This should set
us up for a very pleasant weekend, albeit with perhaps some breezier
winds. Ensembles favor a large portion of our CWA seeing highs of at
least 70, particularly our MN counties, Saturday through Monday. A
good trade off for the breezier winds. Additionally, long-range
guidance has slowed down the arrival of any significant shortwaves
until the early half of next week, increasing the likelihood of a
drier weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

All the rain has come to an end, but some low IFR stratus is
still slowly making its way east out of the region. Expect this
stratus to persist in parts of eastern MN and western WI this
morning before clearing to VFR. Winds this afternoon will gust
up to around 20 knots before becoming light again this evening.

KMSP...VFR featuring scattered cu with a slight chc of showers.
Confidence was too low to include mentioning in this TAF.
Southwest winds gusting near 20kts this afternoon and decreasing
after sunset. Increasing chances for -SHRA tomorrow evening.


/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED PM...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
THU...Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind NW 15G25 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10G20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...Dunleavy