101
FXUS63 KOAX 271125
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
625 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms Today and Saturday with strong tornadoes,
  large hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding possible.
  Greater flooding threat on Saturday night.

- Severe thunderstorms possible on Sunday as well, to a lesser
  degree, but brief tornadoes possible as well.

- Storms wrap up by Monday, with warmer temperatures arriving
  next week. Another round of showers and storms possible
  Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Multiple violent tornadoes scoured the forecast area yesterday,
leaving a path of devastation in their wake. Multiple damage surveys
will be conducted on Saturday in order to begin to determine the
number and intensity of each tornado. Overall, the surveys will
take days, if not weeks to complete, with 2 more days of severe
weather waiting on our doorstep. Our hearts go out to all of
the people that have been impacted by Friday`s event.

We had a brief reprieve tonight to catch our breath, as storms
festered off to our east, over eastern Iowa. A frontal boundary
attendant to the surface low associated with Friday`s storms has
sagged south of forecast area overnight. Quiet weather will prevail
through the morning hours on Saturday, before that boundary lifts
north as a warm front ahead of the next low pressure system. Round
two of severe weather will ignite along this boundary near the
Nebraska/Kansas border by around 2 PM Saturday. Large hail,
strong winds, and potentially a strong tornado or two will be
possible once again as these storms lift north toward I-80. The
boundary will eventually stall, bisecting our CWA Saturday
evening. With PWATs approaching the 90th percentile,
climatologically, we could see some heavy rain production from
these storms. While it depends on how far north the front is
able to travel, should these storms overlap the location of
Friday`s heavy rainfall/saturated ground, areas of flooding
would be likely. Therefore, we opted to hoist a Flood Watch from
locations along and north of a line from Seward, NE to Red Oak
IA for Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.

Our third and final round of severe storms (at least for the
immediate future) arrives Sunday as the surface low passes over
eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. The greatest chance for severe
storms looks to be just to the south east of our forecast area
SUnday afternoon and evening. however large hail, strong winds, and
perhaps a few tornadoes could clip far southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa.

Storms finally exit the region late Sunday night/early Monday
morning. Overall, our pattern remains active through next week, with
multiple chances for showers and storms beginning Tuesday and
persisting through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Main forecast concern will be thunderstorm timing this afternoon
into this evening as a line develops near the NE/KS border and
pushes north. Currently included -TSRA mention at all sites for
2 hours based on timing showed by latest guidance, though exact
timing could very easily change. In addition, some additional on
and off storms could persist into the evening and overnight
hours, though kept those as -SHRA mention for now. Once again,
storms could be severe, with large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes all possible. Otherwise, expect some SCT to BKN MVFR
clouds at OFK through the period. Widespread MVFR to IFR
ceilings then look to move in by this evening. Winds will start
out of the northwest and gradually become northeast, outside of
any storms. Speeds will generally be in the 6 to 12 kt range,
with some gusts of 20 to 25 kts at OFK later in the period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch from 4 PM CDT this afternoon through Sunday
     afternoon for NEZ015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>067.
IA...Flood Watch from 4 PM CDT this afternoon through Sunday
     afternoon for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...CA