629
FXUS64 KOUN 081115
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
615 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

An upper low over the U.S. Northern & Central HigH Plains is still
on track for pushing a surface low followed by a Pacific cold
front/surface boundary across our area, as surface observations by
early morning showing the front extending from Dodge City to Slapout
to north of Amarillo and will be starting its push into northwest
Oklahoma.  Already starting to see surface moisture return ahead of
the front from the southerly flow enhanced by a strong low-level jet
overhead, as mesonet observations are showing a 7-10 degree dewpoint
increase across southcentral through southeast Oklahoma in the last
hour with near 70 degree dewpoints already up to the Red River in
southeast Oklahoma.  Expecting that moisture transport to continue
through the rest of this morning and especially into southeast
Oklahoma as the low-level jet maxima shifts eastward while the
surface boundary continues pushing across the western half of our
CWA.  As far as our pattern aloft, we`ll remain well east of a
positively tilted large amplitude upper trough over the entire
western half of the country. Cooler air through that trough over a
very moist southeast Oklahoma will rapidly destabilize the
environment with models suggesting at least strong to moderate CAPE
values with sufficient 0-6 km shear for potential storms to
organize.  Although our southeast CWA will see afternoon sun,
forecast soundings suggest a mid-level cap will hold for any pre-
frontal convection, but will more likely see convection trigger
along the surface boundary in the afternoon/late afternoon hours.  A
consensus of models (including the RAP & HRRR) suggest the surface
front will be up to I-35 by noontime and pushing into southeast
Oklahoma during the afternoon hours although the latest run of the
HRRR starts convective initiation late afternoon just southeast of
our CWA.  Although if storms develop they will likely be severe but
most of that convection may be in farther southeast Oklahoma.
However, will keep very low POPs (20%) across our far southeast CWA
for this afternoon and into the early evening depending on the
location of the surface front at that time.  Should any storms
initiate they could become severe with large hail and damaging wind
gusts as the main severe hazards with a very low potential for a
tornado to spawn up especially as the low-level jet continues
shifting eastward with low-lever shear weakening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

For Thursday afternoon, do have low storm POPs returning across
southeast Oklahoma.  Expecting the frontal boundary to have pushed
into to central/northcentral Texas where severe storms are more
likely to initiate. However, models suggest our upper trough may
expel a mid-level shortwave with an embedded vort-max along the Red
River so any storms that develop would be more elevated while weak
MUCAPE values/instability would keep them below severe as any severe
would be south of the Red River.

Beyond Thursday, the negatively tilted trough persists across the
western U.S. with an upper low closing over the Southwest Region and
briefly stalling/cutting off from the main upper jet flow through
Friday before getting recaptured and start digging across the
southwest and entering the Southern Plains by Sunday.  After a
surface high moves through on Saturday, models suggest only a weak
returning southerly flow (and moisture return) on Sunday into early
next week with no surface fronts coming in with this system so the
severe risk looks fairly low.  However still could still see a "wet"
trend starting Sunday as this next system moves in with storm POPs
on Sunday into early next week widespread across our CWA.  As far as
temperatures in the long term, we`ll see climatically normal
temperatures through the daytime with cooler (50s) drier nights.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

MVFR cigs/vis will continue across portions of northern/central/southern
Oklahoma this morning amidst areas of stratus. VFR conditions
will emerge at all terminals (latest for areas furthest
south/east) as a cold front advances into eastern Oklahoma by the
early afternoon. Winds will shift from southerly to westerly then
northwesterly as frontal passage occurs. Otherwise, low
probability mention (PROB30 group) of thunderstorms at KDUA by
~21-22 UTC this evening.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  55  77  52 /  10   0   0   0
Hobart OK         84  54  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  86  58  79  55 /   0   0  10   0
Gage OK           81  48  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     79  50  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         89  62  82  58 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...34