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000
FXUS63 KPAH 221748
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1248 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low relative humidity will keep fire danger heightened through
  early this evening.

- Temperatures become more seasonal this week, and warm above
  normal this weekend.

- Rain chances return to the forecast Tuesday afternoon and
  evening, and then again over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

High pressure over the Tennessee Valley shifts east tonight. A
long wave trof making its move toward/over the Great Lakes
barrels a cold front our direction tomorrow. The high is shunted
further south as it approaches, so the return flow of Gulf
moisture is muted. As a result, dew points will still largely be
in the 40s, struggling into the lower 50s, upon its arrival.
Mainly chance category pops (likely pops along I-64) will
migrate across the FA in its advance tmrw afternoon and evening,
with fropa occurring completely tmrw night. Highs will be in
the upper 60s-lower 70s with lows in the 40s mostly but with
some lower 50s Tuesday night with the clouds/pcpn chances.

Temps start to climb by week`s end as upper ridging builds
heights across the FA. Highs push 80 by Friday, and 80s become
more prevalant over the weekend. Dew points follow the mercury,
with 60s returning by the weekend. It`ll have a more summer-like
feel to the air mass, and with the better warmth and moisture
will come better storm chances as well. Look for off/on
scattered pops heading into/thru much of the weekend. Sunday
sees another low take shape and evolve out of the Plains,
ultimately shoving its front our direction Sunday night-Monday.
This additional forcing offers perhaps the best chance of
stronger storms, at least in the next 7 days of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Gridded time/height cross sections show rh in the upper levels
increasing with time...and satellite loops bear this trend for
watching as high pressure shifts east and our next low pressure
storm brews/evolves to our north. Its approach tmrw will
tighten the pressure gradient and return breezy south winds with
gustiness to all terminals. Lower clouds as well as attendant
pcpn chances look to hold off until around/after 18Z Tuesday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$