316
FXUS63 KPAH 042337
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
637 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An unsettled weather pattern is taking shape with scattered
  showers and storms the rest of this weekend becoming more
  widespread by the middle of the week. Heavy rainfall and
  strong storm chances gradually increase by mid week as well.

- Breezy south winds Tuesday and Wednesday associated with a
  developing low pressure system.

- Warm temperatures remain through mid week before a cool off
  with lower humidity returns spring like temperatures and dew
  points late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Regional radar this afternoon shows isolated showers confined
to far SE portions of the forecast area. The thermodynamic
environment across the area is very unstable with CAPE`s
approaching 2500-3000 j/kg. Fortunately wind fields aloft are
weak keeping deep layer shear less than 10 knots at best. As a
result chances of strong to severe storms are very low. A
boundary resides further west tied to a northern stream
disturbance moving across the northern plains. There is some
uncertainty regarding how far east convection makes it tonight.
The consensus from the CAMS suggest a weakening tend further
into the night as its makes its progression into SEMO which
makes sense with a quick loss of instability and little to no
shear to otherwise support maintenance. The rest of tonight
should be dry as a boundary pushes into the area. Deeper low
level moisture arrives late tonight and early Sunday resulting
in increasing stratus.

Much of Sunday appears quiet, before an upper level shortwave moves
in providing the next chance of more widespread rainfall.
Chances of showers and storms increase Sunday afternoon and
carry into Sunday night. Widespread rain showers will stick
around for a good part of Monday associated with the upper level
disturbance. The upper levels amplify Monday into Tuesday as a
strong trough digs into the plains. The parent trough eventually
elongates by midweek supporting southwest flow aloft through
the rest of the week. Multiple periods of severe potential look
possible Tuesday into Wednesday as a result of this pattern.
This period features increasing upper level jet support leading
to a deepening surface low developing across Missouri. The
thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space will be more than
sufficient for convective potential. Additionally, several
rounds of precipitation will bring the threat of flooding,
especially later in the week associated with the repeated rounds
of rains.

Eventually, we see some drier weather return toward the latter half
of the forecast period. Northwesterly winds will advect a much drier
airmass into the region behind a front. Temperatures appear to cool
off by as much as 5-10 degrees with lower humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A line of thunderstorms has developed to the west of the area
and is moving east and should impact the terminals in the
coming hours. Visibility may be reduced under heavy downpours.
MVFR cloud cover is expected to move in after midnight and
gradually cover the area and continue through tomorrow. Winds
are light and generally out of the west and southwest and will
remain fairly light and variable tomorrow.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...SHAWKEY