651
FXUS65 KPIH 021011
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
411 AM MDT Thu May 2 2024

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
Rinse and repeat for the forecast with another cold day featuring
scattered rain and snow showers as yet another shortwave trough
rotates around a parent low in the nrn Plains near the Canadian
border and crosses SE Idaho. Temps running just a few degrees warmer
today compared to yesterday will allow snow levels to run 5,000 to
5,500 feet, although warmest temp readings will still hold in the
mid-40s to low-50s. All-in-all, we`re trending into slightly less
wind and slightly lower potential for snowfall to briefly accumulate
as it did yesterday. Fri we`re noticing a trend toward a drier
forecast as the shortwave moves east and brief ridging moves in,
which might grant most of the region a dry day with highs nudging
into the upper 40s to upper 50s. All of this sets the stage for a
significantly warmer day Sat...a true taste of spring
returning...but it will be short-lived as yet another low pressure
system takes aim at the region. More on Saturday and beyond below.
Meanwhile, AM low temps at or below freezing will likely continue to
necessitate FREEZE WARNINGS or FROST ADVISORIES right through Sat
AM, so continue to be mindful of the need to protect early season
gardens and sensitive vegetation. 01

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
Models and ensemble clusters are in much better agreement this
morning. Closed low swings through PacNW into the northern Great
Basin Saturday, which shifts northeast but leaves broad trough
across the western states through the remainder of the forecast
period. Saturday should be warm but with gusty south winds as warm
front lifts through the region. Precipitation onset arrives
generally afternoon, which should be rain most areas. Cold front
passage occurs late Saturday night or early Sunday. Bulk of
precipitation associated with this feature falls Sunday into
Monday. Center of upper low lifts out of the region Monday, but
region remains unsettled under the influence of lingering broad
trough. Cool temperatures continue through the week with periods
of precipitation and breezy to windy conditions. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...
Relative break in the pattern early today as weak shallow ridge
moves in behind departing shortwave feature. Mainly VFR conditions
are expected early today, though there are a few pockets of
likely MVFR CIGS per satellite imagery. Next region of high cloud
cover beginning to spill into East Idaho this morning, preceding
next batch of precipitation this afternoon and overnight.
Temperatures rebound enough for VFR -SHRA this afternoon, but as
temperatures cool this evening, expect CIGS to lower to MVFR -SHSN
for the overnight. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for IDZ051>055.

&&

$$