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000
FXUS65 KPSR 150738
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1238 AM MST Mon Apr 15 2024

.UPDATE...Updated 06z Aviation Discussion...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly clear skies and cooling temperatures will dominate across
the region through tomorrow. Breezy to windy conditions will
continue through this evening before subsiding beginning tomorrow.
Temperatures will then trend warmer going through the middle and
latter portions of this week and high pressure builds into the
Desert Southwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Clear skies are currently dominating across the Desert Southwest
this afternoon, with high temperatures expected to hover near
normal. However, the weather pattern is transitioning as a closed
low currently centered over the southern California coast will
shift eastward over the next 24 hours. As a result, temperatures
will cool through tomorrow as negative height anomalies traverse
across the region. The only weather impact with this weather
feature is continuing breezy to windy conditions today across the
region, with residual breeziness continuing across southeastern
Arizona tomorrow as the closed low moves east of the region. Wind
Advisories remain in effect for central to western Imperial
Counties as winds continue to gust in the 40-50 mph range through
this evening.

Mid-level heights will rebound on Tuesday, leading to a warming
trend going through the middle of the week. The magnitude of
warming is a bit more muted relative to previous ensemble guidance
as ensembles are now showing a shortwave digging into the
Intermountain West more aggressively beginning on Tuesday.
Nonetheless, temperatures will warm to above normal Tuesday
through the rest of the week. The only change is the maximum
potential for the highs late week are several degrees cooler, as
latest NBM probabilities of 100 degrees across the lower deserts
are now no higher than 10%. Thus, Minor HeatRisk will prevail
through this period.

Quasi-zonal flow looks likely to prevail going into this weekend,
as ensembles depict some form of weak ridging across the West
Coast. However, there remains some discrepancies on how the
aforementioned trough evolves, but the predominant solution is
some form of positive height anomalies continuing across the
region. Thus, seasonal to a few degrees above normal look to
continue through this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0530Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
The gusty winds from earlier this afternoon are gradually
subsiding across the region with speeds below 10 kts expected
during the overnight and morning hours. Winds for the most part
are expected to remain out of the west into Monday evening, with
the only exception being KIWA where winds could briefly switch out
of the south-southeast early morning. Otherwise, another period
of enhanced gusts upwards of 20-25 kts is expected during the
early to mid-afternoon hours once again before subsiding by the
early evening hours. Skies are expected to remain mostly clear
through the period.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

The strong winds from earlier today are gradually subsiding,
although KIPL will continue to gust near 20 kts into the overnight
period. Winds on Monday will gradually veer out of the northwest
to north with much lighter speeds aob 10 kts. Skies are expected
to remain mostly clear through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
With dry weather prevailing, near to below normal temperatures
early this week will rapidly warm back into an above normal
category during the latter half of the week. Breezy to windy
conditions during the afternoon hours will continue through
Monday, with the strongest winds across the western districts this
afternoon. As minimum afternoon humidity levels fall into a
10-25% range during this period, a locally elevated fire danger
will exist. With warmer temperatures later in the week, minimum
humidity levels will dry further into a 10-20% range with single
digits common across lower desert locations. Overnight recovery
will turn poor to fair in a 20-40% range. However, lighter wind
speeds will preclude a greater fire danger and provide an
excellent opportunity for prescribed burning during the middle of
the week.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...Wind Advisory until 2 AM PDT early this morning for CAZ562.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Young
AVIATION...Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...Young/18