National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KPUB 181753
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1153 AM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much cooler with lots of clouds over the plains today,
   mostly sunny interior valleys/high country.

 - Some isold showers central mtns and east slopes of S mtns.

 - Red Flag conditions in the San Luis Valley today.

 - Critical fire weather conditions expected again within the
   San Luis Valley Friday afternoon.

 - Messy weather is expected for the start of the weekend,
   cooler temperatures and increased precipitation chances area
   wide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 400 AM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Currently....

A cold front has pushed south across the region early this AM. Brisk
north to northeast winds were still ongoing across a good part of
the plains although winds have relaxed somewhat over parts of the
southern I-25 corridor region. Most of the plains were overcast,
covered with low clouds while the mtns were clear (except for the
central mtn region).

Temps at 3 AM were in the 30s across N El Paso county with 40s most
over locations on the plains. 30s and 40s were noted over the larger
valleys with 20s mtns. Some showers were ongoing across the central
mtns per radar and obs.

Today...

A much cooler day as compared to yesterday for the plains. Max temps
today are likely to be in the U40s to U50s across the plains while
the interior will be much warmer, with the San Luis Valley reaching
temps near 70F. Given the low RH values and gusty west winds across
the interior, the SLV well see Critical Fire Weather conditions
today and a RED FLAG WARNING is in effect for this region. The
plains today will likely see lots of clouds, with some breaks
occurring over the plains east of the interstate by afternoon.
Areas along the interstate and westward to the mtns/plains
interface could see lower clouds most if not all of today. Some
precip will be possible along the mtns/plains interface this
afternoon, with the best chance over Teller county and N El Paso
county. There will be scattered showers over the central mtns today,
especially north of Cottonwood Pass.

Tonight...

Most of the plains will likely see lots of clouds, especially along
and north of US50. Precip chances across the region will be very
low, with the exception being across the central mtns were scattered
showers will be possible, especially higher elevations north of
Cottonwood Pass. Temps will reach down into the 30s with some
freezing temps possible over N El Paso county. Valleys and mtns will
see lows in the 20s and 30s. /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Friday: The end of the work week will bring relatively quiet
weather to south central and southeastern Colorado, though with some
fire weather concerns and chances of light showers. Synoptically,
westerly flow will prevail over the region. Given the lack of major
forcing with this pattern, dry conditions are expected. The
exception to this will be isolated light showers along and
immediately around the mountains given minor orographic forcing.
Otherwise, the biggest concern for the day will more critical fire
weather conditions within the San Luis Valley. More warm, dry, and
windy conditions are anticipated within the San Luis Valley during
the afternoon, and will allow for widespread critical fire weather
conditions to materialize. Looking at temperatures, a warm Spring
day is expected. Cooler air in place behind a cold front from
Wednesday night will help to keep the lower elevations cooler, with
temperatures warming to around seasonal values for mid April. Then
areas generally west of the I25 corridor will hover around and above
seasonal values.

Friday Night - Saturday: For the start of the weekend, unsettled
weather is expected for the area, with Friday night into Saturday
morning, and mid Saturday afternoon to Saturday evening being the
most active periods. A longwave trough to the north will shove a
reinforcing cold front southward Friday night, though it will mostly
remain restricted to the lower elevations across the plains. Winds
behind this front will become easterly and surface upsloping into
the eastern terrain features will develop. This upsloping will allow
for widespread clouds and areas of drizzle/flurries and light
rain/snow to develop during Friday night into Saturday morning. This
precipitation will lessen in coverage late Saturday morning and
early afternoon as the upsloping decreases in magnitude. Then round
two of more widespread active will take place during mid to late
Saturday afternoon to Saturday evening. During this period, a short
wave trough will push eastward over the region, bringing increased
ascent/support. Given this, showers will blossom again in coverage,
especially over the mountains, as this wave passes over. Some
showers may become convective in nature as modest diurnal
instability develops during the afternoon. Precipitation with this
second round will finally start to decrease in coverage and
intensity area wide Saturday night as forcing with the shortwave
lessens as it quickly treks eastward. As for temperatures, a similar
setup to Friday is expected. The lower elevations will drop well
below seasonal values given the cold front passage, whereas areas
generally west of the I25 corridor will remain warm and around to
slightly above seasonal values.

Sunday - Wednesday: For the rest of the long term period, another
stretch of relatively quieter weather is expected. Ensemble model
guidance have trended away from ridging flow to more flat zonal
flow. Still, with this pattern, no major forcing is expected and
given that, mostly dry conditions are anticipated for south central
and southeastern Colorado. The exception to this may be light
showers, especially over the mountains, given minor upticks in
forcing from modest waves/ripples in the zonal flow. There are hints
of a shift to more meridional flow during the midweek period, but
there is significant difference in timing and strength of this at
this time between ensemble models. If this were to influence the
area, an increase in precipitation chances and a drop in
temperatures would be expected. As for temperatures, a rebound to
warmer temperatures is anticipated across the region, with most
rising to above seasonal values for late April.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

At KCOS, shallow post-frontal upslope will persist over the
plains today and tonight, keeping cigs mainly MVFR through the
period, and some brief IFR is possible 18z-20z this afternoon
with very light drizzle. On Fri, MVFR cigs likely to continue
in the morning, slowly improving to VFR after 18z-20z.

At KPUB, easterly low level flow will keep cigs MVFR today and
tonight, though there may be some brief breaks in the cloud deck
in the 20z-02z timeframe. Cigs slowly improve to VFR after 18z
Fri.

At KALS, VFR conditions expected the next 24 hrs. SW winds will
gust 20-25 kts until 02z-03z, then diminish. Gusty SW winds
will return again after 18z Fri.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ224.
Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Friday for COZ224.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...PETERSEN