288
FNUS75 KRIW 081507
FWSRIW

Spot Forecast for Rock Tunp Pile Burn...Bureau of Land Management BLM
National Weather Service Riverton WY
907 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 MDT on May 08.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service

.DISCUSSION...

The region remains under the influence of a large area of low pressure.
Associated strong winds, cooler weather, and snow showers will remain
possible today, as a result. Snow shower chances will decrease through
the day, with best chances this morning and early afternoon before 1400.
A 20% chance of snow showers will continue through much of the night,
increasing to 30% Thursday afternoon. Winds will be northwesterly with
gusts 25 to 35 mph through 2200 today, then decreasing through the late
afternoon and evening, becoming light from the north to northeast
overnight. Easterly winds will increase late tomorrow morning between
0900 and 1100, with gusts of 30 mph expected through the afternoon.
Light winds and drier weather Friday through the weekend.

...Thunderstorms imply strong gusty and erratic winds...
...Haines index is high level haines both day and night...

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Snow shower
                    chances decrease through the day. 40% chance
    of snow before 1400 then 20% chance of snow
showers through the rest of the afternoon.
CWR.................19 percent before 1400 decreasing to 5 percent.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 35.
Min humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 16 to 18 mph with gusts to
                    around 28 mph.
Ridgetop wind.......Northwest 25 to 30 mph.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL increasing to 3800 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 24 to 28 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (55300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (81500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........86  86  86  84  83  82  81  80
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............20  20  10  10  10  10  10  10
Chc of pcpn (%).40  40  30  30  20  20  20  20
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............28  28  29  30  31  33  33  34
RH..............70  67  65  63  62  60  61  61
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..18  18  18  17  17  17  17  16
20 FT wind gust.28  28  28  26  25  25  25  24
Ridge wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Ridge wind spd..30  30  25  25  25  25  25  25
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 2.3 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.8 3.8 3.8
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.28  28  26  26  26  24  24  24
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
SDspl kt-ft/100055  55  82  82  82  80  80  80

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). 15 to 20%
                    chance of snow showers through the night.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 29.
Max humidity........87 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 8 to 16 mph with gusts to
                    around 24 mph decreasing quickly after sunset.
North winds 8 to 10 mph though 2200, becoming
light north to northeast overnight.
Ridgetop wind.......North 15 to 20 mph shifting to the east around
                    10 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......3100 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....North 13 to 22 mph shifting to the northeast 9
                    to 12 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (58300 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (3900 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........80  71  61  51  49  48  46  56  66  76  65  54
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH     SCH SCH
Weather type....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW      SW  SW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  10  20  20
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............35  34  33  32  31  30  29  29  29  29  29  29
RH..............61  67  70  73  76  79  83  83  84  85  85  86
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   NE  E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..16  13  10  8   6   6   4   4   5   5   6   6
20 FT wind gust.24  19  16  13  10  8   6   6   7   7   10  8
Ridge wind dir..NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   E   E   E   E   E   E
Ridge wind spd..20  20  20  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...3.1 3.1 3.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  E   E   E
Transp wind spd.22  22  22  13  13  13  9   9   9   12  12  12
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2
SDspl kt-ft/100058  58  58  8   8   8   4   4   4   5   5   5

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). 20 to 30% chance
of rain showers and snow showers through 1700.
CWR.................2 percent.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 2 until 1700, then 1.
Max temperature.....Around 45.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 6 to 14 mph with gusts to around 21
                    mph increasing to 16 to 19 mph with gusts to
                    around 30 mph between 0900 and 1100.
Ridgetop wind.......East 15 to 20 mph increasing to around 30 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL increasing to 6500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 14 to 22 mph increasing to 28 to 29 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5700 knot-ft) to air (42400 knot-ft) through
the morning, increasing to very good (125000 knot-
                    ft) in the afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........43  45  48  51  50  49  48  43  38  33  31  28
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  RS  RS  RS  RS  RS  RS
Tstm cov........                        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  20  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2
Temp............29  31  33  35  37  39  41  42  43  44  44  45
RH..............87  82  77  73  68  62  57  53  48  43  44  44
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..6   7   10  12  14  16  17  18  19  19  19  19
20 FT wind gust.8   11  16  18  21  24  26  28  30  30  30  30
Ridge wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Ridge wind spd..15  15  15  20  20  20  30  30  30  30  30  30
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.5 2.2 2.2 2.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 6.5 6.5 6.5
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.14  14  14  22  22  22  28  28  28  29  29  29
SDspl kt-ft/10006   6   6   42  42  42  125 125 125 162 162 162

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...
Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the lower 30s.
Highs in the lower 50s. East winds around 16 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the upper 50s.
North winds around 7 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the lower 60s.
Northwest winds around 8 mph.

$$
Forecaster...Hensley
Requested by...Jeffrey Priebe
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413263.1/RIW
.DELDT 05/08/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jpriebe@blm.gov