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000
FXUS63 KSGF 131009
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
509 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to locally significant fire weather risk this
  afternoon mainly for areas west of Springfield. This is due to
  humidity values of 25-30 percent combining with 25-35 mph
  wind gusts.

- High confidence that dry weather and above normal temperatures
  occur this weekend as highs warm into the low to mid 80s.

- Thunderstorm chances return Monday night with severe
  thunderstorm chances on Tuesday. Confidence in severe
  thunderstorm timing and potential hazards remains low. Stay
  up on the forecast.

- Gusty winds will occur Monday through Wednesday. Strongest
  winds will occur on Tuesday with south wind gusting up to
  45mph at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Surface high pressure is currently south of the area and will
move east today. An upper level ridge will move east over the
region today with surface low pressure moving over the Plains.
Southerly winds will return to the area today and become gusty
as the pressure gradient tightens between the surface high to
the southeast and the surface low to the northwest. Gusty winds
will occur across the entire area, but the strongest winds will
occur west of Highway 65 as gusts of 25 to 35 mph occur at
times from late this morning into this evening. A warm air mass
will also move over the region today as highs warm into the
lower to middle 80s. A drier air mass will also be in place
again today as afternoon humidity values drop to around 25 to 30
percent across much of the area. An elevated to locally
significant fire risk will develop again from late this morning
into early this evening as the gusty winds and drier air mass
combine.

Lows tonight into Sunday morning will be in the middle 50s to
the lower 60s. A weak upper level disturbance will move through
the region tonight into Sunday morning but a dry air mass will
be in place. Therefore, not expecting any rain to occur with
this disturbance.

The upper level ridge builds back over the region on Sunday
with a warm air mass remaining in place, allowing highs to once
again warm into the lower to middle 80s. Breezy southerly winds
will occur again on Sunday but shouldn`t be quite as gusty as
they will be today. Some moisture advection will start to occur
across the region on Sunday limiting fire weather concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Ensemble model members remain in decent overall agreement with an
upper level low moving southeast across California and Nevada
tonight and Sunday, moving east into the Plains by Monday night, then
across the region on Tuesday. There still remains some minor
differences on the exact timing and track to the system. Surface
low pressure will move northeast across the central Plains
Monday into Tuesday and into Iowa by Tuesday night. Gusty winds
will continue across the region Monday through Wednesday but
will be strongest on Tuesday southeast of the low as gusts up to
around 45 mph will be possible at times.

A warm front will remain north of the area on Monday, with a
dry front across the Plains. As a result, another warm day will
occur on Monday as highs warm into the middle 80s again even
with increasing clouds. Most of the day should be dry across the
area as a cap will develop south of the warm front and the area
remaining well east of the dry line/cold front. Convection will
start to develop across the west central Plains along the dry
line Monday afternoon/evening then will move east into Monday
night. The cold front should remain west of the area through
Monday night, but the storms across the plains could form into
clusters and track off ahead of the front and could move into
the western portions of the area overnight Monday. This
convection would likely be more elevated in nature. There
remains questions on just how strong of a cap will be in place,
however a few strong to severe storms could be possible west of
Highway 65 Monday night, with hail and wind the main risk. The
better severe risk should remain west of the area Monday and
Monday night though. And if the cap holds strong Monday night
and the front slows, much of the night could be dry. The cold
front will move across the area Tuesday and push east of the
area Tuesday night. Additional showers and storms will develop
along the front. Deep layer shear will increase as the upper
level low tracks north of the area, and models are indicating
that enough instability should develop to support a severe risk
across portions of the area on Tuesday. Will have to get a
handle on the exact amount of instability that develops across
the area. Stay up on the latest SPC Severe Weather Outlooks
through the weekend.

Highs will warm into the 70s across much of the area on Tuesday,
however rain and clouds could limit warming across the east
Tuesday afternoon. If the front moves through fast enough,
temperatures across southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri
may be able warm to near 80. A drier air mass will also move
into the area behind the front, but temperatures will not cool.
This could allow afternoon humidity values to drop to around 30
percent west of I-49 Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday looks dry across the area as the system moves off to
the the east and another system approaches from the northwest.
Highs on Wednesday should warm into the middle to upper 70s.

Another upper level trough will move east across the Plains
late in the week and will send a cold front through the area
bringing additional rain chances. The ensemble model members
continue to show difference on the timing and track of the
system, so there is still low confidence on the exact timing of
rain returning at some point Thursday into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 508 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions will occur across the area today through tonight
into Sunday. Southerly winds will increase and become gusty
this morning remaining gusty into the overnight hours. The
strongest winds will occur during the afternoon and early
evening hours. Low level wind shear will be possible across the
area this evening into tonight. A weak disturbance will bring
some high to mid level clouds to portions of the area this
evening and tonight. No rain will occur across the area today
through Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Record High Temperatures:

April 13:
KVIH (Rolla/Vichy MO): 86/2006

April 14:
KJLN (Joplin MO): 88/2006
KVIH (Rolla/Vichy MO): 87/2006
KUNO(West Plains MO): 85/2006

April 15:
KSGF (Springfield MO): 87/1924
KJLN (Joplin MO): 86/2006
KVIH (Rolla/Vichy MO): 84/1955
KUNO (West Plains MO): 84/1967

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 15:
KSGF (Springfield MO): 63/2006

April 16:
KSGF (Springfield MO): 66/1963

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Burchfield