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000
FXUS63 KSGF 170858
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
358 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures today into Thursday morning, then
  slightly below normal temperatures late this week through the
  weekend.

- Elevated to locally significant fire weather conditions this
  afternoon, mainly east of Highway 65.

- Additional thunderstorm chances return this evening into
  Thursday, with strong to severe storms possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The surface and upper level lows are located across Minnesota
early this morning, and will continue to move off to the
northeast. The pressure gradient is slowly weakening from
southwest to northeast across our area, with gusty winds
continuing across central Missouri. Wind gusts up to 30 mph will
remain possible at times across portions of central Missouri
this morning. Wind will weaken this afternoon as the surface
low continues to move off to the northeast. A surface front is
pushing south into northern Arkansas, where it will stall this
morning into this afternoon. The air mass behind this front is
not any cooler, as highs will warm into the lower 80s this
afternoon. A drier air mass has advected into the area behind
the front and this will allow afternoon humidity values to fall
into the 20 to 30 percent range this afternoon. Elevated to
locally significant fire danger will occur today, especially
east of Highway 65.

The front will then lift to the north this evening and tonight.
Elevated instability will be in place along the front, but a
cap may also be in place. The cap should weaken some as through
this evening into tonight. Isolated storms will be possible this
evening but the coverage is still in question, because if the
cap holds, storms may not develop across far southern Missouri,
but more across east central Kansas and west central Missouri
tonight. Deep layer shear would support the potential for a few
strong to severe storms with hail up to the size of pennies to
quarters with a few of the strongest storms. Coverage of storms
may be low, so many locations may not be affected this evening
and tonight.

An upper level trough will move east across the northern Plains
tonight into Thursday. A cold front will move southeast across
the Central Plains tonight and Thursday. Storms along the cold
front should remain northwest of the area through tonight.
Instability will increase ahead of the front Thursday morning
and afternoon as the cap should weaken. A line of storms should
develop along and front across central Missouri and move
southeast through the area from Thursday morning into late
Thursday afternoon. The better coverage in storms will likely be
along and east of Highway 65, with more questions in the
coverage to the west. The better upper level support will remain
north of the area, but with increasing instability, enough deep
layer shear, and lift from the front there will be the
potential for severe storms on Thursday. Damaging winds and
large hail will be the main risk. This activity should move
south of the area by early Thursday evening if not during the
afternoon hours. Temperatures will start to cool from north to
south during the afternoon behind the front on Thursday, and
many locations highs may occur in the morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The cold front will continue to move off to the southeast of
the area on Thursday as the upper level trough moves east into
the Great Lakes region Thursday night and Friday. A cooler air
mass will continue to advect into the region on Friday as highs
warm into the lower to middle 60s. Friday looks to remain mainly
dry. Another upper level trough will move through the region on
Saturday. A drier air mass will be in place which will limit
the overall rain chances through there will be some low chances
for light rain across southern Missouri on Saturday; main model
members keep the rain chances south of the area on Saturday.
Highs on Saturday and Sunday will warm into the upper 50s to the
lower 60s and lows each night cool into the upper 30s to the
lower 40s. There is some potential for lows in the middle 30s
across portions of the eastern Ozarks both Sunday and Monday
mornings.

A warming trend will then occur early next week as highs return
to the 70s by Tuesday. The ensemble models then show the
potential for another upper level through brining rain chances
to the area by the middle of next week, but there is still a lot
of differences in the models on the track and timing of this
system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Gusty southwesterly winds will continue across central Missouri
this morning as the surface low continues to move northeast into
the Great Lakes region. The gusty winds will decrease from west
to east today.

A front will continue to move south and stall across Arkansas
early this this morning. The front will then lift north back
into the area as a warm front this evening. Isolated storms will
be possible along the front and could affect the TAF sites, but
did not include any convection in the 00Z TAFs for this activity
due to lack of confidence in a TAF site being affected due to
coverage. A cold front will move southeast across the Central
Plains tonight into Thursday morning. Additional storms will
develop along the front but should generally remain north of the
area through this TAF period but will affect the area during the
day on Thursday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise