049
FXUS64 KSJT 301914
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
214 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

The main concern for today and tonight will be the potential for
isolated strong to severe storms in our western and northern
counties. We will have some low clouds this morning across much of
the area, especially south of Interstate 20. These low clouds
will scatter out of area by around noon. Later this afternoon, as
temperatures warm, CAPE values will climb into the 2000 J/kg range
by mid afternoon, while convergence increases along the dryline
to our west. Coverage is expected to be fairly isolated as we will
have very limited upper level support underneath broad low
amplitude ridging. With the amount of instability combined with
deep layer shear values in the 30 to 40 knot range, any storms
that can develop will have the potential to become strong to
severe, with the main hazards being large hail and damaging winds.
If any storms can get going, expect them to develop during the
late afternoon hours, and last through late evening. Otherwise,
highs today will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Winds will be
southerly and gusty, and lows tonight should be in the mid 60s to
around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

The dryline is forecast to remain well west of our area on
Wednesday, only advancing east into the Trans-Pecos region and
Permian Basin. East of the dryline, good instability will develop,
with SBCAPE values of 3K to 4K J/KG. Shear will be modest, with 0-6
KM Bulk Shear values of 30 to 35 knots. A weak upper level shortwave
trough is forecast to track across the region late Wednesday, which
should result in the development of showers and thunderstorms along
the dryline to our west. This activity will then track east across
much of the forecast area through the evening hours. A few strong to
severe thunderstorms are possible, with large hail and damaging
winds being the main hazards, although a tornado is also possible.
Initially storms should be discrete with supercells most likely, but
as the activity advances east, the cells might merge in to one or
more linear complexes. Rainfall amounts will likely range between
1/4 and 1/2 inch of rainfall, but amounts over 1 inch are possible
in any of the more intense storms. At this point, the highest rain
chances look to be across our eastern counties, where a more linear
mode in convection is expected versus our western counties where
more discrete cells are likely.

On Thursday, a dryline is forecast to advance east into our central
counties by mid to late afternoon. Meanwhile, a cold front will move
into the Big Country during the morning hours, then approach central
portions of the area by mid to late afternoon. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and
evening hours, for those areas south of the front and east of the
dryline. This will confine PoPs to mainly our eastern counties.
Cooler temperatures and gusty north winds will filter in behind the
front. Expect overnight lows in the 60s. Highs on Friday will be a
few degrees cooler, in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the Big
Country to the mid to upper 80s elsewhere.

Slightly cooler temperatures are expected this Friday into the
weekend, with highs mainly in the 80s. PoPs this weekend continue to
be somewhat uncertain and will depend on exactly where the front
stalls and eventually how far north it lifts. At this point, PoPs
were kept mainly in the chance category, with the higher PoPs across
the Big Country. These may need to be adjusted on future shifts once
higher confidence is reached.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

The MVFR cigs of the morning have largely lifted and are starting
to break up some, with most areas likely to see VFR conditions for
the remainder of the afternoon and evening. More low clouds are
likely to return overnight and VFR conditions will prevail again
by sunrise Wednesday morning.

Latest CAMs continue to show some support for some convection this
evening, although they vary widely in coverage. Right now it looks
like the best chances may be near KABI for a few hours around
sunset, with much more isolated activity farther south. Will
include a tstm mention up at KABI for a few hours but hold off
elsewhere until the chances look better.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     67  86  65  90 /  30  30  70  20
San Angelo  69  89  67  93 /  20  40  60  10
Junction    70  87  69  90 /   0  30  60  30
Brownwood   67  84  67  87 /  10  30  80  40
Sweetwater  68  87  65  91 /  20  40  50  10
Ozona       68  82  67  91 /  10  30  40  10
Brady       69  84  67  86 /  10  30  80  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...07