207
FXUS62 KTBW 070751
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
351 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

In the upper levels, broad high pressure will build into the central
Gulf of Mexico today and shift east across Florida Wednesday and
Thursday. At the surface, Atlantic high pressure will continue to
ridge across the central Florida Peninsula, with light
southerly/southeasterly flow turning onshore near the coast with the
afternoon sea breeze. Enough moisture will be present for some
isolated to scattered sea breeze showers and storms this afternoon,
mainly over the interior, then drier air will fill in through the
middle of the week. With the ridging aloft, some patchy fog will be
possible Wednesday morning, mainly over the Nature Coast. Otherwise,
the main forecast concern will be building temperatures under the
stacked ridging, with high temperatures forecast to top out in the
mid to upper 90s over the interior Wednesday through Friday.

Friday through Monday, a series of shortwaves will swing through the
Great Lakes and eastern US, bringing a weak frontal boundary into
Florida and washing out Friday night and Saturday. A secondary front
will then follow up on Sunday night and Monday. Increasing moisture
ahead of and along these frontal boundaries will result in increased
rain chances Friday through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 351 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

A few showers or storms are expected to develop by around 19-20z
this afternoon along sea breeze boundaries, with the highest
chances over the interior around KLAL and over southwest Florida
around KRSW, KFMY, and KPGD. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected to hold through the next 24 hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 351 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Atlantic high pressure will ridge across Florida into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, with generally south and southeast
winds, turning onshore near the coast with the afternoon sea breeze.
Winds will remain less than 15 knots with seas of no more than 2
feet under mostly rain free conditions. The ridge will shift south
Friday and Saturday as a front washes out over the waters,
allowing winds to increase slightly and turn to southwesterly and
westerly on Friday, then northwesterly and northerly on Saturday.
A few showers and storms will be possible Friday and Saturday,
with locally gusty winds possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 351 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Relative humidity will drop to near critically low levels this
afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon. However, winds will not
be high enough to trigger Red Flag conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  90  77  89 /   0  10   0   0
FMY  74  92  74  91 /  10  10   0   0
GIF  72  95  74  96 /  20  10   0   0
SRQ  72  88  74  87 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  66  91  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  77  87  78  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$


Fleming