Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
002 FXXX10 KWNP 010031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 May 01 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 01-May 03 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 01-May 03 2024 May 01 May 02 May 03 00-03UT 4.67 (G1) 3.67 3.67 03-06UT 4.00 4.00 3.33 06-09UT 3.00 3.67 3.00 09-12UT 2.33 3.33 3.33 12-15UT 2.67 3.00 3.00 15-18UT 2.33 2.67 3.33 18-21UT 3.00 3.67 3.33 21-00UT 3.33 3.67 3.67 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is expected during the early hours of 01 May due to transient influences. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 01-May 03 2024 May 01 May 02 May 03 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Apr 30 2024 2346 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 01-May 03 2024 May 01 May 02 May 03 R1-R2 55% 45% 35% R3 or greater 10% 10% 5% Rationale: R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to M-class flare activity primarily from AR 3654 are likely on 01 May.