Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 252024
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
324 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

As of mid afternoon a cold front extended south southwest through
Northeast Oklahoma to South Central Oklahoma and into West Texas from
a surface low centered in Eastern Kansas. Ongoing rain showers and
cloud cover from this morning remained across Western Arkansas.
Meanwhile between the back edge of the precip to the
front...across much of Eastern Oklahoma...cloud cover had become
more scattered/broken. This had allowed for temps to warm into
the upper 50s/low 60s with a broken line of cumulus clouds
developing along the front roughly from Nowata to Okemah to west
of Durant. Along this broken line...weak instability had begun to
develop.

Through late afternoon and into early evening...the front will
continue its eastward track through the CWA. The more
scattered/broken cloud cover could allow for a marginal
instability axis along/near the front and interact with strong
deep layer shear/moderately steep mid level lapse rates. The
combination of these features will aid in 20-50 percent chance of
additional thunderstorm development along the boundary as it
moves through the CWA through early evening. Cold 500-mb temps and
the deep layer shear will allow for a limited severe potential
with large hail the primary threat across far Eastern Oklahoma
into Northwest Arkansas. At this time the greater precip potential
should be exiting the CWA around mid this evening.

Behind the front...gusty west to northwesterly winds and drier
conditions will spread over the CWA through this evening. These
winds should weaken some overnight though still remain breezy into
early Tuesday morning as the mid/upper level trof axis moves into
the region. One other thing of note behind the front...as the mid
and upper low lifts from the Panhandles/Western Oklahoma up to the
Kansas City area tonight...low level clouds should spread into
the CWA from the west/northwest. Limited moisture and a cold
temperature profile associated with the mid/upper low could aid in
a few snow flakes developing along the Kansas Oklahoma
border...mainly west of Highway 75 tonight. No impacts are
expected from any isolated development. Cloud cover tonight should
keep low temps above freezing in the 30s for most locations.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

The mid and upper level trof axises are progged to push east of
the CWA Tuesday afternoon/evening...which will help to scatter
cloud cover over the region Tuesday afternoon. Model soundings
indicate additional mid and high level cloud cover beginning to
spread back into the CWA ahead of another shortwave forecast to
reach the Panhandles early Wednesday morning. While the low clouds
should lift/scatter these additional clouds could keep temps
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning from bottoming out. Thus...have
gone above the NBM for low temps tonight and Tuesday night. There
remains some uncertainty with the overall cloud cover extent
Tuesday night...which may create the potential for some freeze
headlines.

The next shortwave moving through the region Wednesday should
mainly just be a continuation of cool conditions...while limited
moisture should keep the passage of the disturbance dry for the
CWA. In the wake of the departing wave...clearing conditions are
forecast from west to east Wednesday night.

A warming trend gets underway Thursday with the return of southerly
winds. Southerly winds become gusty Friday and continue into the
weekend with temps climbing back into the 70s/lower 80s. These
conditions could increase fire weather concerns each afternoon
Friday through the weekend. The next chance for precipitation
looks to come during the early part of next week with another low
pressure system forecast to enter the Southern/Central Plains.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Widespread rain and occasionally reduced visibilities are ongoing
for AR sites this afternoon. Expect coverage to begin to decrease
by 20-21z as precipitation moves off to the east. Additional
showers and storms may develop in E OK along an approaching cold
front near 21z. Did not include precip mention for E OK sites at
this time as development is expected to occur after the front
passes these sites. If development occurs further west than
forecast, a brief shower or thunderstorm may impact OK sites near
21/22z. Did include TEMPOs for AR sites between 23-03z for
potential thunderstorm impacts. Winds will shift from south to
west with the passage of the cold front with gusts up to 20-25
kts. Low clouds are forecast to fill in overnight mainly across NE
OK and NW AR, potentially bringing a period of MVFR cigs.
Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected following the front this
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   35  54  33  58 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   37  55  36  61 /  50   0   0   0
MLC   34  55  35  60 /  10   0   0  10
BVO   33  52  31  56 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   35  50  33  61 /  40   0   0   0
BYV   36  49  33  58 /  30   0   0   0
MKO   35  54  34  58 /  20   0   0   0
MIO   36  49  32  57 /  30   0   0   0
F10   34  54  34  58 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   37  58  38  61 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...43


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