788
FXUS65 KTWC 062031
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
130 PM MST Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Cooler today with less wind, although still breezy at
times, especially to the east of Tucson. Breezy to locally windy
conditions continue Tuesday and Wednesday, especially east of Tucson
as high temperatures warm back up to around normal. Friday through
the upcoming weekend, expect less wind and highs several degrees
above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...We are on the back side of the system which brought
windy conditions to southeast Arizona yesterday, which means cooler
high temperatures today and readings topping out in the upper 70s to
lower 80s in valley locations (which is 4-6 degrees below normal).
Still some breezy afternoon and early evening west/northwest winds
over portions of Cochise, Graham and Greenlee counties, with speeds
of 15-20 mph and gusts to around 30 mph.

The models show a system dropping into the Great Basin from the
north during the middle of the week. The models are hinting at some
cut off characteristics with this system and currently keep it to
our north through the weekend. This scenario keeps dry westerly flow
in place across southeast Arizona this week. The gradients tighten
on Tuesday and Wednesday in response to this system dropping into
the Great Basin, resulting in breezy conditions during the mid to
late afternoon hours especially to the east of Tucson over portions
of Cochise and Graham counties. Wind speeds will be near critical
fire weather thresholds Tuesday and may even exceed those thresholds
for an hour or two on Wednesday in a few locations. However at this
time, this appears to be a very borderline event, in terms of not
only winds speeds, but duration and areal extent. Have elected to
hold off on any RFW headlines at this time. If subsequent guidance
values show wind speeds increasing for Wednesday, an RFW would then
likely be needed. Otherwise, high temperatures warm back up to right
around normal both Tuesday and Wednesday.

Thursday, highs continue to top out right around normal, with less
wind and typical May afternoon/early evening breezy conditions due
to strong surface heating.

Friday through the weekend, highs warm to 2-4 degrees above normal
with typical afternoon breeziness.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 08/00Z.
Clear skies/SKC conditions thru the forecast period. SFC wind
WLY/NWLY at 9-18 kts and gusts to 18-28 kts thru 07/02Z, with the
strongest wind east of KTUS in the vicinity of KSAD, KDUG and KALK.
SFC wind less than 12 kts and variable in direction between 07/02Z
and 07/18Z. Aft 07/18Z, SFC wind SWLY thru NWLY at 12-20 kts and
gusts to 20-30 kts, with the strongest wind to the east of KTUS.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will be 4-6 degrees below normal
today, warming to right around normal Tuesday through Thursday.
Highs then climb to 2-4 degrees above normal Friday through the
upcoming weekend. This week min RHs values will be in the single
digits to lower teens in the valleys, with values generally in the
teens for the mountains.

Breezy afternoon/early evening winds will persist through Wednesday,
especially to the east of Tucson. Winds diminish Thursday into the
weekend, although typical May afternoon gustiness can be expected.
Wind speeds both Tuesday and Wednesday will be near critical levels
for a couple of hours during the mid to late afternoon hours across
portions of Cochise and Graham counties. At this time, the duration
and geographical area/extent of critical wind speeds do not warrant
RFW headlines.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson