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000
FXUS65 KTWC 142118
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
218 PM MST Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Gusty winds are expected Monday afternoon across southeastern
Arizona, especially east of Tucson and Nogales. Cool highs will be
found across the state after a front crosses tonight, then a
warming trend is expected through the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

An upper low was in the process of crossing California this
afternoon, while an associated jet streak was located over
southern California. Modest pressure falls downstream of this
trough will create some mildly breezy winds today, then an
increase in winds are likely tomorrow as the trough and jet cross
Arizona. Whether or not winds increase to the point of
necessitating an advisory is still questionable however, as
strongest mid- upper level flow will be exiting to the east during
the afternoon hours. NBM and MOS guidance has taken a step back in
regards to winds Monday afternoon, which matches recent model
trends that have sped up the timing of the trough to be exiting
slightly quicker than previously forecast. At this point we`ll
hold off on an advisory, but can`t rule out some areas near the
New Mexico border seeing a period of advisory criteria winds. All
in all, windiest areas will likely be eastern areas of Cochise and
Graham counties with 20 to 30 mph westerly to northwesterly winds
(potentially higher in some areas that experience localized
downsloping effects), with 15 to 20 mph winds into the Tucson and
Nogales areas. For now As cooler air will push in with this
trough, Monday`s highs will drop into the 70s across lower
elevation locations and upper 40s to 50s in higher elevations. Low
relative humidities in eastern areas of Graham and Cochise county
along with the increased winds would normally cause concern for
fire weather, though at this point fuels remain adequately green
to preclude a headline.

Temperatures will ramp up over the following days after Monday,
returning to well above normal by Wednesday and Thursday. Ensemble
height anomalies remain on the higher side, which leads to a
warm for this time of year and dry forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 16/00Z.

FEW-SCT clouds at around 20k feet will clear after 06Z. Winds
become light after 03Z, then gradually increase again after 16Z.
Expect gusty winds after 18Z Monday, especially in eastern areas
closer to the New Mexico border. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Warm and dry across Southeast Arizona with above
normal temperatures this week. Minimum relative humidity 6 to 13
percent in valleys today. Slight improvements Monday to RH with
the exception of eastern Cochise County. Gusty winds early in the
week as a couple of dry systems move through the region to the
north. Monday will see the strongest winds with speeds 15-25 mph
east of Tucson. Some areas could see brief critical to near
critical fire weather conditions Monday afternoon east of Tucson,
but fire danger and ERCs are still low for this time of year.
Temperatures will gradual rise this week reaching into the low 90s
by Wednesday continuing through the weekend with minimum RH around
5-10 percent Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Public...Edwards
Aviation...Edwards
Fire Weather....Malarkey

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