555
FXUS63 KUNR 080856
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
256 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Cool and unsettled through Thursday with scattered to numerous
 showers and isolated thunderstorms.

-Snow showers in the higher Black Hills with some accumulation
 possible this morning.

-Warmer and drier for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Tuesday)
Issued at 223 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024

The large upper low, currently centered over southwestern North
Dakota, will sag southward across the forecast area today.
Instability associated with this system will produce scattered to
numerous showers today through Thursday. MUCAPE will reach
100-200J/KG (highest toward south central SD) this afternoon, so
along with the showers, isolated thunderstorms are possible.
Periodic bands of drier air will wrap into the region, at times
bringing breaks to the bands of showers, but it is difficult to
determine the exact timing and location of any of those features
today. The highest PoPs today will be to the west of the upper
low, over northeastern Wyoming, with slightly lower PoPs toward
central SD.

Northerly winds will be breezy at times through Friday until an
upper ridge builds toward the northern Plains from the west,
which will result in warmer weather through the weekend.
Although conditions on Friday and Saturday will be drier, there
will be low chances for showers, mainly over the Black Hills. On
Sunday, there is a better chance of showers, and a few
thunderstorms, over and near the Black Hills, extending into
southwestern SD, as weak impulse cross the region in
northwesterly flow aloft. Better chances for showers and
thunderstorms are expected for Monday through Wednesday as the
ridge shifts off to the east and an upper trough affects the
northern plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued At 921 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

Areas of rain showers (snow in the higher elevation areas of the
Black Hills) will continue on and off through the TAF period.
MVFR/IFR conditions will gradually spread into nern WY, nwrn SD,
and the nrn BLKHLS overnight, with IFR/LIFR conditions there by
12-15z Wednesday. These conditions will persist through much of
the day, even into parts of wcntrl and swrn SD, with MVFR
conditions for most of the rest of wrn SD. Conditions should
improve over much of the SD plains on Wednesday evening.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...10
AVIATION...Bunkers