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000
FXUS65 KVEF 122109
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
209 PM PDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Above-normal temperatures will continue through this
afternoon before an approaching area of low pressure brings cooler
temperatures and gusty winds to much of the area on Saturday.
Winds will decrease on Sunday, but an active weather pattern will
result in breezy afternoons and temperatures returning to close to
normal for much of next week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday.
A weakening area of low pressure moving across Baja California
will transition into an open wave as it moves into Arizona
Saturday morning. Height falls associated with this low/wave,
along with an approaching area of low pressure moving towards the
central California coast, will allow temperatures to drop 6 to 8
degrees Saturday and an additional 8 to 10 degrees by Sunday.

The more significant impact from low approaching California will
be increasing winds area-wide on Saturday. Confidence in the wind
forecast continues to be below average, with a noticeable
difference in model guidance. The NBM 4.1 continues to be bullish
with the winds suggesting gusts over 55mph are possible across
Esmeralda, central Nye, and northern Inyo counties. On the other
hand, probabilities from the HREF only indicate a 10-20 percent
chance of seeing gusts over 55mph in the same areas, mainly on the
higher peaks. Given the fact that the NBM has tended to over-
forecast winds over the past few weeks, we opted to issue a Wind
Advisory instead of a High Wind Warning. The advisory will go into
effect at 8 AM tomorrow for Inyo, Esmeralda, and central Nye
counties, and at 2 PM for southern Nye, Lincoln, Clark, northern
San Bernardino, and the Colorado River Valley. Both wind
advisories will end at 11 PM tomorrow. Winds will decrease on
Sunday as the center of the low passes overhead.

Moisture will remain limited over our area, with the bulk of it
being intercepted by the Sierra. A few inches of snow are expected
along the Sierra Crest, with only trace amounts expected in the
higher elevations of the southern Great Basin. Rainfall is
forecast for lower elevations of the southern Great Basin, but
with PWAT values less than 0.40", any rainfall that falls will be
light.
&&


.LONG TERM...Monday through next Thursday.

On Monday, the upper-level low will quickly exit to the east,
keeping our area under a dry, northwesterly flow. The next system
will move into the western states on Tuesday, but the majority of
the ensembles keep the main system well north of the area and only
bring a short-wave trough across our area on Tuesday and Tuesday
night. At this point, the main impacts will be some increase in
northerly winds late Tuesday through Thursday, and keep
temperatures close to normal levels. Any precipitation during the
period will be light and is expected to remain north of the Las
Vegas Valley, with the latest NBM indicating only about a 10%
probability of measurable rain in northern Lincoln County Tuesday
through Thursday.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Gusty south to southwest winds will
continue through the evening. Gusts over 25KT are likely through the
afternoon with the strongest gusts expected between 21Z-02Z when
there is a moderate chance (40%-50% probability) for gusts over
30KT. Winds will begin to diminish around sunset with southerly
winds of 10-12KT. Wind will decrease below 10KT by around 06Z for
the night. Winds will increase again out of the southeast Saturday
morning with gusts over 20KT expected after 15Z. Winds will increase
and become more southerly by around 20Z Saturday with gusts
approaching 35KT (60-70% probability) No significant clouds or
weather anticipated through the TAF period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...South to southwest will prevail through the evening
hours across the area today with widespread gusts of 20-30KT
expected. The strongest winds are expected across northern Inyo
County into Esmeralda County where gusts over 30KT are possible.
Winds will diminish tonight but remain elevated at 10-15KT through
portions of southeast California and western Arizona. Stronger
southerly winds will set in during the mid-morning hours Saturday
with favored areas seeing gusts exceeding 35-40KT. No significant
clouds or weather anticipated through the TAF period.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Planz
AVIATION...Berc

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