Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 231857

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
257 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

High pressure will build down into and over the area later today
and tonight. Low pressure moves east from the Mississippi
Valley Saturday, then across the Carolinas Saturday night. The
low moves offshore Sunday, as high pressure builds in from the


A shortwave trough will drop SE and acrs the region this aftn,
producing SCT-BKN SC and a partly to mostly sunny sky. Highs
will range fm the upper 40s/near 50 over the ern shore, to the
mid 50s south of I64, along with a NW wind at 10-20 mph.

Went lwr than guidance on dew point temps this aftn, especially
acrs the Piedmont, where readings will likely drop into the
teens given the nw wind flow. This puts relative humidity values
in the lower to mid 20s during peak heating hrs.


1040mb sfc high ivof Hudson Bay will build into the region tonight
in the wake of the upper trough. Mstly clear and cold with lows
from the upr 20s nw to mid 30s se.

The high remains anchored north of the region Sat. Meanwhile, low
pressure tracks across the Miss Valley toward the Tenn Valley with
an extension of the high nosing down the Mid Atlntc coast. Drier air
associated with the high progged to hold off pcpn through 21Z. Still
noting some timing differences wrt the onset of pcpn when models show
enuf support for some pcpn to break out across the wrn zones. Will
carry chc pops btwn 18-21Z across wrn most zones then extend the
chc pops farther east 21Z-00Z. Likely pops swrn most zones late.
Pcpn type to be mostly in liquid form but some mixing is psbl
ivof AVC by sunset. Highs 45-50, but falling into the upr 30s to
nr 40 across the west once the pcpn arrives.

Low pressure progged to track across the srn Carolinas Sat night, a
bit farther south than previous forecasts. Models struggling to
determine just how far north the pcpn gets due to the drier air in
place from the high to the north. The NAM is an outlier and followed
more of a GFS/ECMWF soln with this forecast package.

A rather sharp QPF cutoff is noted on where significant pcpn occurs.
Another challenge will be sfc temps as readings will remain aoa
freezing for most of the evening when most of the pcpn is expected
to fall. The exception here being the extreme sw zones ivof fvx-avc
where pcpn should quickly go over to snow during the hvyst pcpn
intensity. Otw, expect that a rain/snow mix will occur a bit later
into the evening hrs before going over to snow.

In a nutshell, expect any snow accumls will be limited to the wrn
piedmont (south of I64 and west of I95). Thus, have cut back accumls
even further with less than an inch except a 1-2 inch swath from
near FVX-AVC. No headlines as this appears to be an advsry level
event at most across xtreme swrn zones Sat night. Pops range from
categorical across the sw to nothing across the ne. Pcpn begins to
taper off across the north after midnight as the support for any
sgnfcnt pcpn pushes south into the Carolinas. No measurable QPF
expected north of I64 with up to 1/2 in ivof AVC. Lows from the upr
20s NW to mid 30s se.

Pcpn quickly ends across the se Sun morning as high pressure builds
into the area from the north. Skies bcmg mstly sunny but remaining
chilly due to a brisk ne wind. Highs in the mid 40s.  Mstly clr and
cold Sun night. Lows mid 20s nw to upr 30s se.


The extended part of the forecast starts out cool then
temperatures moderate mid-late next week. Ridge aloft and sfc hi
pres will be aligned N-S invof E coast Mon night-Tue...then
gradually weaken as deep layered SW flow develops from the
Plains states to the mid-Atlantic region. Used blend of
GFS/ECMWF/WPC through the period wrt timing return of cloudiness
and increased PoPs. Dry wx hangs on through Tue night/early
Wed...then PoPs expected to increase Wed afternoon-Fri along w/
VRB clouds/mostly cloudy conditions.

Lows Mon night in the u20s W to the m-u30s at the coast. Highs
Tue in the m-u40s at the coast (w/ still a bit of a ENE breeze).
Lows Tue night from the m30s inland to around 40F at the
immediate coast. Highs Wed 50-55F at the coast to the l60s
inland. Lows Wed night ranging through the 40s. Highs Thu in the
m-u50s at the coast to the m-u60s in central VA to interior NE
NC. Highs Fri 55-60F at the coast to the l-m60s in central VA
and the u60s across interior srn VA-NE NC.


VFR conditions continue through the forecast period as high
pressure builds across the sern states. Another s/w trof moves
across the area producing sct-bkn CU during peak heating hrs. Nw
winds gust btwn 15-20 kts. Only sct clouds expected tonight.

Low pressure approaches from the W Saturday and pushes across
the Carolinas Saturday night. This could produce flight
restrictions with a mix of rain and snow at PHF/ORF/ECG and
light snow at RIC. High pressure becomes anchored over New
England, with VFR conditions expected from Monday through the
middle of next week.


NW winds below SCA over the local waters attm...expected to
continue into this eve. Another surge of low level CAA and
increased speeds expected by mid-late eve into the overnight
hours. Boosted speeds to lo end SCA over the Ches Bay mainly
after 02Z/24 and continued through 09-11Z/24...while elsewhere
speeds expected to remain (just) below SCA criteria (based on
hi res guidance). Lo pres passes S of the waters late Sat into
Sun morning...but poor mixing will keep any SCA potential
limited. NNE Winds and seas/waves increase (to at least mid
range SCA) beginning midday/afternoon Sun as lo pres deepens
offshore. These elevated conditions expected to remain over the
local waters into Tue as lo pres is slow to move farther out to


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ630>632-634.


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