Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 231950

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
350 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

...Chances for Showers Tuesday...

Primary Forecast Concern...Rain shower timing and chances Tuesday.

Increasing mid/high clouds tonight should keep it on the mild side
with lows in the middle 30s to lower 40s expected. The combination
of low pressure moving by to our south and a surface cold front
approaching from the northwest will increase shower chances Tuesday.
Lots of dry air to overcome at lower levels so northern zones will
have a hard time moistening up enough to produce rain showers.
Farther south across much of northern lower (perhaps minus the tip
of the mitt) moisture is deeper so there will likely be at least a
few showers around in the afternoon. Highs Tuesday ranging from the
upper 50s to lower 60s.


.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday night through Thursday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

...Midweek (mostly) rain threat with drier/milder weather Thursday...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Current split flow pattern across the
CONUS with a southern branch upper low spinning its way across the
Tennessee Valley...with the Great Lakes stuck in between this low
and stronger northern branch flow across southern portions of
Saskatchewan/Manitoba and northern Ontario.  Decent looking northern
branch disturbance emerging from the northern Rockies and into the
High Plains this afternoon...with another northern branch short wave
trough farther upstream over northern Saskatchewan.  It is this
latter piece of energy that will swing southeast and across Michigan
Tuesday night/Wednesday...followed by a stronger disturbance digging
southeast and likely impacting Michigan in the Thursday night/Friday
time period.

Surface cold front stretched out across northwest Ontario will lie
across Michigan Tuesday/Tuesday night...surface high pressure builds
southeast behind the front Wednesday which will allow for northerly
boundary layer flow to push cooler air into northern Michigan.  This
will likely be reinforced by another cold front attendant to
following short wave trough Friday.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Deep layer moisture will be across the
forecast area associated with two systems Tuesday night...some
getting pulled northward from southern branch upper low...and some
from northern Saskatchewan short wave trough.  Plan on lingering
moisture and precipitation chances longer into Wednesday across far
eastern Upper/northeast Lower than depicted by the quicker GFS and
especially NAM-WRF.  Anticipating drying Wednesday evening with more
widespread sunshine for Thursday.  After our recent spell of
seasonably mild temperatures...highs likely to return to the 40s for
Wednesday...then back into the 50s (and probably some lower 60s) for
Thursday afternoon.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

A relatively sharp cold front will drop down from Canada to kick off
the start of the extended period...with passage in the Thursday
night through Friday time frame.  The precip will likely be all
liquid...but this front is looking like it may drag down enough cold
air that a few snowflakes shouldn`t be ruled out...particularly
should the precip line up with the diurnal cycle and occur at night.

Some straggling moisture may linger into Saturday...but the drying
trend should commence and last into Monday.  A temporary dip to
cooler than normal readings can be expected at the start of the
period...but temperatures will moderate through the second half of
the weekend, back to seasonal by Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 118 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

High pressure will slide off to our east tonight with low pressure
moving by to our south Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected to
continue through the period with only increasing mid/high level
clouds later tonight into Tuesday morning. Winds will generally be
light out of the northeast, though lake breezes could shift winds
this afternoon. Rain shower chances will move in Tuesday afternoon
after this TAF period.


Issued at 345 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

As low pressure lifts thru the Ohio Valley Tuesday night...winds
will increase and likely reach SCA criteria Tuesday night across
the Western Great Lakes between this low and high pressure over




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