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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 191057
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
457 AM MDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture is finally coming back today to most parts of the
Borderland. However, portions of southwestern New Mexico remain
dry. This will keep a chance for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms in areas east of the Continental Divide. Some of
these storms may become strong to severe with damaging winds and
large hail. Also windy conditions remain for this afternoon and
tomorrow afternoon. After this system moves away lighter winds
and slightly above normal temperatures domain the weekend and
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico behind a back door cold front
has been moving into the region in the overnight hours. Surface
dew points are expected to increase into the 40s with PWs
between three quarters of an inch and an inch, which is very
healthy for April. As most areas are very dry in the southwest
deserts, a dryline is expected to develop this afternoon near the
Continental Divide. The mixture of these elements and diurnal
heating will allow the development of thunderstorms. Now the
complicated part of this forecast is the movement of an upper
level trough from the Great Basin into the Four Corners area. If
this system were to move faster than expected it could scour the
moisture before significant storms develop. However, at the moment
this system appears to be on track. Therefore, storms are expected
late this afternoon and evening, some becoming strong or severe.

Models agree on the development of convective activity is
today. The NAM and the GFS agree as well as the HRRR display
storms developing in southcentral New Mexico and Far West Texas.
50 kts plus shear values along with MUCAPES between 500 to 1500
J/kg and steep mid level lapse rates indicate a chance for the
development of large hail. Also storms may generate damaging winds
due to DCAPES around 700 to 1400 J/kg and steep lapse rates at
the low levels. Periods of heavy rain with some of these storms
may be possible. However, a mean flow above 20 kts will keep the
storms moving to the northeast and inhibiting the flooding
potential.

Also keep in mind that windy conditions will continue in the
afternoon and evening and into Friday as the upper level trough
and the associated cold front approaches the area.

Conditions will improve this weekend and early next week as the
upper level trough moves into the southern planes. Dry weather and
cooler temperatures will be expected due to a northwest flow
ahead of the ridge. Anyways, a weak backdoor cold front moves in
on Sunday, but with no significant impacts, besides the usual
change in wind direction and slightly stronger winds in the
western slopes of area mountains.

Towards the end of the forecast period, another backdoor cold
front will swings down in the Borderland. This one brings back
rain and thunderstorm chances. It is still far away in the
forecast period, so this model run will change but at the moment
most of the precipitation chances remain in the eastern portions
of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 19/12Z-20/12Z...
Mostly VFR conds thru period. Winds will be increasing out of the
S to SE at 10-20G30KTS with cloud cover increasing to FEW-
SCT080-100 SCT- BKN150-200 with isolated 3-5SM -TSRA BKN040-060
possible after 21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Winds will be returning across the region ahead of another
upper low moving out of Northern California and across the Four
Corners area through Friday. Winds will be out of the south to
southeast Thursday east of the divide and from the southwest west of
the divide. Expect wind speeds to increase to 15 to 25 mph Thursday
which will create near Red Flag conditions especially over Hidalgo
and parts of the Gila region where relative humidities will be
falling back into the 5 to 10 percent range. Humidities east of the
river will be above 15 percent with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon, and even some dry lightning is
possible. The moisture will push further west Thursday evening
along with the chance for storms.

Moisture push will move out Friday with strong west to southwest
winds of 20 to 30 mph which will create widespread critical fire
weather conditions again. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for
the entire area, but RH`s may remain too high in mountains. On
the back side of this storm system, winds will shift back to the
southeast which will draw back some low level moisture and keep
relative humidities above the single digits for early next week.
Winds will also be much lighter through Tuesday so additional
critical fire weather days are not expected after Friday for the
remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 81  63  78  52 /  20  40   0   0
Sierra Blanca           76  55  80  45 /  20  20   0   0
Las Cruces              81  52  72  44 /  20  40   0   0
Alamogordo              78  52  73  45 /  10  20  10   0
Cloudcroft              57  41  48  30 /  10  40  20   0
Truth or Consequences   79  54  72  45 /  10  20   0   0
Silver City             76  41  62  39 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  83  48  71  41 /   0  10   0   0
Lordsburg               85  42  69  38 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      80  61  73  52 /  20  40   0   0
Dell City               77  46  79  43 /  10  20   0   0
Fort Hancock            80  59  82  48 /  20  30   0   0
Loma Linda              76  51  70  49 /  10  40   0   0
Fabens                  82  56  78  49 /  30  30   0   0
Santa Teresa            81  56  74  46 /  20  40   0   0
White Sands HQ          79  58  72  50 /  20  40   0   0
Jornada Range           79  47  72  43 /  20  40   0   0
Hatch                   83  49  74  43 /  10  40   0   0
Columbus                85  50  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               78  58  73  47 /  10  40   0   0
Mayhill                 63  44  59  34 /  10  30  30   0
Mescalero               68  46  57  35 /  10  20  20   0
Timberon                60  43  56  33 /  10  40  20   0
Winston                 72  35  63  33 /   0  20   0   0
Hillsboro               78  46  68  41 /   0  20   0   0
Spaceport               78  48  71  41 /  10  40   0   0
Lake Roberts            75  30  60  29 /   0  10   0   0
Hurley                  77  40  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   80  33  66  31 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              76  32  64  38 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 78  42  65  38 /   0  10   0   0
Animas                  85  44  71  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 84  44  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          85  46  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              80  44  67  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for NMZ110>113.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

29-Crespo



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