464
FXUS62 KILM 050208
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1008 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this weekend
due to several upper level disturbances, diurnal heating, and
the daily sea breeze. Dry high pressure will build overhead by
Wednesday with well above normal temperatures likely during the
middle and late portions of next week. Rain chances increase
towards the end of next week due to an approaching frontal
system.

&&

.UPDATE...
No big changes necessary from the previous forecast with this
update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mid level convergence and accompanying moisture axis currently
inland (aiding ongoing showers) will shift eastward towards the
coast overnight as ridging off to the east begins to move
southward. This will lead to widespread PWATs over 1.6" across
the FA for Sunday. Will see showers move onshore across
northeast SC overnight, spreading northward into Cape Fear
region by morning. Well above normal low temps tonight in the
mid 60s due to clouds and showers. Despite increased cloud
coverage tomorrow morning with ample low level moisture, there
should be enough sunshine tomorrow afternoon to lead to another
day of diurnal convection, including coastal counties this time
along sea breeze. High temps around 80F Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Unsettled weather continues through the short term period.
Moisture advection picks up Mon ahead of the next shortwave. The
higher PWATs paired with the more saturated soils due to
continued rain could support the threat of some localized
heavier downpours. The shortwave will move offshore by Tues
morning with ridging building in behind it. Lingering
instability and moisture support continued scattered showers and
storms through the day Tuesday. Highs in the low to mid 80s
with lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Quiet but hot weather through midweek as the ridge amplifies
aloft with drier mid level air and subsidence. Highs will
increase into the 90s with decent humidity. Still no heat
advisory concerns with the current forecast. Current forecast is
2 deg off the record high for Wilmington NC Wed, but high
clouds might make it hard to get any warmer. High clouds look to
also be overhead Thurs aftn, so didn`t go as high as the NBM
with highs. An approaching cold front increases rain chances
towards the weekend, the frontal passage currently expected
sometime Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR to start off the 00Z TAF period with showers also starting
to dissipate across the area. Still expect rain chances to
return Sunday morning however, along with MVFR ceilings
especially inland. Lower confidence near the coast...so kept it
VFR there for now Sunday, but will re-evaluate in future
updates. Slight chance of thunder as well Sunday with ~10 kt
southerly flow.

Extended Outlook...Scattered convection will bring periodic
visibility and ceiling restrictions Mon. Otherwise, looking at
VFR dominating outside the pcpn and becoming the mainstay Tue
into Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday...Onshore flow strengthens a bit tonight into
Sunday as offshore high pressure shifts southward, with SSE
winds around 10- 15 kts and some sea breeze enhancement closer
to the coast Sunday afternoon. Scattered showers, with isolated
thunderstorms, will move in from the south across coastal waters
after midnight and continue through early Sunday before
diminishing. 2 ft seas this evening increase to 3 feet by
morning as SE wind wave builds, with weak E swell persisting.

Sunday Night through Thursday...SW flow 10-15 kts expected
through the period, with mild enhancement in the winds during
the afternoons due to the sea breeze. Seas 2-3 ft increasing to
3-5 ft through Wed into Thurs due to an increasing southerly
wind wave (3-5 ft at 5- 6 seconds) and a weaker long period
swell from the ENE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MAS
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...VAO/LEW