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000
FXUS62 KJAX 262300
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
700 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 519 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

High pressure will be northeast of the region through
Saturday. Weak inverted troughs are expected to develop in this
pattern overnight and through Saturday, which will provide for
convergent bands to develop over the waters, and move ashore.
Typically these showers will weaken over land, as they move away
from the source of convergence. Have increased precipitation
chances at the coast overnight through Saturday, to account for
these bands. The greatest chance will be over NE FL, based on
expected location of troughing.

Have seen light ot moderate showers develop over the waters this
afternoon in weak troughing, and even more convergence in
troughing will be present for shower generation overnight into
Saturday, hence the early update to reflect the greater chance for
coastal showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

The weak cold front has stalled across the FL/GA line and will
dissipate overnight. Pressure gradients between the low out west
and the high pressure off the NE coast will begin to tighten as
the low pushes east and the high shifts south along the coast
creating breezy easterly winds. Increasing coverage of
stratocumulus advecting off the Atlantic waters as well as a
developing inverted trough will lead to partly to mostly cloudy
skies today and overnight. Temperatures will be in the mid to
upper 80s inland with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s
along the coast with night time temperatures in the low to mid 60s
inland and upper 60s to low 70s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

The main concern over the weekend will be beach hazards as surf
builds and breezy onshore flow yields a High rip current risk at all
the area beaches.

A weak coastal trough over the local waters may push a few sprinkles
into the immediate coast on Saturday morning but will be very
isolated in nature. With the moistening onshore flow, skies will
trend partly to mostly cloudy by Saturday, especially near the
coast. Combination of increasing cloud cover and onshore flow will
keeps highs in the low 80s inland while the coastal areas peak in
the upper 70s to near 80 each day while overnight temps remain in
the mild low/mid 60s.

High pressure to the northeast will gradually sink southward and
weaken allowing winds to relax through Sunday while trending
southeasterly. Cloud cover will begin to scatter out with
temperatures similar to Saturday with continued component of onshore
flow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Ridging progged to initially hold steady through Monday before being
flattened by a dampening upstream shortwave trough Tuesday. That
feature will drag a surface cold front with it but as it weakens the
front appears to stall generally to the northwest, extending the
ongoing dry-spell likely through the latter end of next week when
sea breeze showers may begin to be prevalent. Otherwise temperatures
will trend above normal through next week with temperatures flirting
with the 90s once again as southerly flow develops.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Prevailing VFR conditions forecast this period.

Could see a few showers moving ashore overnight possibly affecting KSGJ,
then both KSGJ and KCRG through the day Saturday. Can not rule
out a brief restriction if one of these showers pass right over
the station. At this time though, the chance is too low to mention
restrictions, so going with a VCSH remark.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

A frontal boundary along the FL/GA line has stalled over the
northeast Florida waters and will dissipate tonight. Meanwhile,
strong high pressure off the northeast coast will wedge down the
coastline beginning this afternoon, resulting in strengthening
onshore winds and building seas. Small Craft Advisory conditions
develop early Saturday for offshore waters making it to the inland
waters by the afternoon and into Saturday night. Caution
conditions prevailing elsewhere across our local waters. High
pressure will then shift southward while gradually weakening late
this weekend, becoming anchored off the southeastern seaboard for
much of next week. Winds and seas will gradually diminish from
Sunday afternoon through the early portions of the upcoming week.

Rip Currents: Moderate Rip current risk continue continues at SE
GA beaches today while High Risk is in play at NE FL beaches.
Increasing onshore winds and elevating surf will lead to High Risk
of Rip Currents at all beaches through the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 414 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Water levels along lower portions of the Santa Fe River have
crested, but Moderate flooding near the Three Rivers Estates
gauge will continue through Saturday night, with water levels
then gradually falling, but remaining in minor flood for much of
next week. Water levels near the gauge at Hildreth on the lower
Santa Fe will also gradually subside, with minor flooding
expected to continue through at least Tuesday. Water levels are
expected to fall below flood stage along upper portions of the
Suwannee River near the gauge at Suwannee Springs early this
morning. Minor flooding will otherwise continue along most of
the lower Suwannee River through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  82  61  82 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  67  77  66  77 /  20  20   0   0
JAX  65  80  64  79 /   0  20   0   0
SGJ  67  79  67  79 /  20  30   0   0
GNV  61  81  61  82 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  62  83  62  82 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ124-125-133-
     138.

GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 5 AM EDT Sunday for
     AMZ454.

     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Saturday to 5 AM EDT Sunday for
     AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$