Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 252322
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
622 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...

VFR conditions have returned to all but FST early this evening
however low cigs are clearing quickly and FST will return to VFR
shortly. Northerly winds this evening will veer to the south
overnight and remain fairly light through the TAF period. Otherwise,
VFR conditions can be expected at all terminals tonight and
Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 218 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018/

DISCUSSION...

A cool surface ridge will hold sway over the region tonight, and
along with fairly light winds and clearing skies, result in a chilly
Thursday morning.  Temperatures will rebound to near normal levels
Thursday afternoon as the ridge shifts eastward quickly.  A fast
moving shortwave trough within the persistent northwest flow aloft
will then send another cold front south through the area Thursday
night.  The forecast will be mainly dry through Friday as most of
the mid level dynamics remain well to the northeast of the region.
An isolated storm or two could develop over the Presidio Valley/Big
Bend Thursday night as the front pushes through, but not expecting
much.  Temperatures will be around 5 degrees below normal Friday,
and a little closer to normal Saturday as the surface ridge behind
Thursday night`s front lingers.  The flow aloft will become
southwesterly thereafter, with an isolated thunderstorm or two
possible over the Presidio Valley/Big Bend possible Friday/Saturday
in meager low level moisture return.

Temperatures will be near normal Sunday, but will vault above normal
Monday/Tuesday as southwesterly flow increases ahead of a deepening
west coast ua trough.  Low level moisture will spread into the
higher terrain Sunday afternoon due to height/surface pressure
falls, with a timely shortwave trough possibly aiding thunderstorm
development off the higher terrain.  Any storms that develop could
spread eastward Sunday evening, but instability will be limited due
to the relatively mild high temperatures Sunday afternoon.  A
dryline will sharpen up Monday afternoon with storms again possible.
Model differences do not offer much support for a definite solution
right now, but it does appear the dryline will shift eastward by
Tuesday with any storms developing then forming east of the forecast
area.  Fully expect models to offer several different scenarios
between now and then, so stay tuned.  Fire weather could become a
concern Tuesday/Wednesday afternoon as hot, dry and windy conditions
possibly return, especially over the higher terrain/SE NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     42  83  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       43  83  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         46  83  57  81 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                  45  84  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 47  77  47  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          41  79  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          35  83  48  71 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           42  83  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         42  83  51  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           43  87  51  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72



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