Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 280509 AAB
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1209 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018

.UPDATE...

No change to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...

A convective complex will roll across northern Wisconsin late
tonight. Outflow from that complex will likely bring northerly
winds and some high clouds to southern WI by mid Monday morning.
As that boundary weakens and moves out, winds will shift back to
the south for the afternoon. The exception will be the lakeshore
areas where the winds should remain east with a lake breeze.

It will be another very hot day Monday with some thin mid and high
clouds overhead.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 1019 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018)

UPDATE...

Convection across northern Wisconsin overnight is looking more
certain now. Our area will remain dry, but this will give us some
morning clouds and northerly winds with the outflow. Winds will
turn to the east and gradually south-southeast, so expect slightly
cooler temperatures in the east. Areas well inland from Madison
and west will still get very warm, similar to today`s temps.

MARINE...

Winds and waves will remain below small craft levels for the next
few days. Very warm, moist air over the relatively cool water
could cause fog to develop over Lake Michigan through Tuesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 644 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018)

UPDATE...

Thunderstorms developed along weak surface convergence boundaries
late this afternoon. A few spiked up pretty high and we had a
report of small hail from one storm and a report of wind damage
from another storm. Thunderstorm chances are dwindling quickly
this evening with the loss of daytime heating.

Expect light winds with a few high clouds around tonight. A
convective complex may roll through northern Wisconsin overnight.
Outflow from this convection would cause some breezier northerly
winds during the morning hours. This may cause slightly cooler
temperatures (a couple degrees) for tomorrow than expected.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

It is possible that a convective complex could roll across
northern Wisconsin late tonight. Outflow from that complex would
bring northerly winds to southern WI by mid Monday morning. As
that boundary weakens and moves out, winds will shift back to the
south for the afternoon. The exception will be the lakeshore areas
where the winds should remain east with a lake breeze.

It will be another very hot day Monday with some thin mid and high
clouds overhead.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 329 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018)

SHORT TERM...

Tonight and Memorial Day...Forecast Confidence is High...

Isolated thunderstorms will diminish around dusk as we lose
daytime heating. With plenty of surface based cape, they have
fired along weak surface convergence in south-central WI. With
little shear any individual storm will not last long. Cirrus may
help hinder much more storm development.

Light winds and mainly clear skies are expected tonight. A mid
level ridge will move overhead tomorrow. It will be hot again with
light winds. A lake breeze, possibly enhanced by a weak back door
cold front, will keep lakeshore areas cooler.

Monday night and Tuesday...Forecast Confidence High.

The upper ridge Over Wisconsin gradually moves east late Tuesday, as
an upstream shortwave moves across the northern and central
plains. This is again a little slower than previous runs, so
much or all of Tuesday should be dry.

Southeast winds brings a steady cooler light southeast wind off
Lake Michigan, but well inland temperatures will continue to be
very warm.

Again moderate to strong CAPE in the forecast soundings with a
weak cap around 875 mb. However under the mid/upper ridge little
forcing with weak winds.

LONG TERM...

Tuesday night through Friday...Forecast Confidence is Medium.

The upstream shortwave moves into the upper Mississippi Valley
later Wednesday, and into western Wisconsin Thursday. meanwhile,
the remnants of Alberto pushes north into Indiana Wednesday, and
into lower michigan Thursday. The resultant mid/upper trough
reaches the Eastern Great Lakes Friday. This will increase the
chance of rain over southeast Wisconsin. precipitable water
values rise to around 2 inches late Wednesday afternoon, with the
forecast soundings becoming almost moist adiabatic. As such the
chances of heavy rain are also increasing.

Slightly cooler, but still warm, temperatures are expected inland,
while areas near lake Michigan will be noticeably cooler.

Saturday...Forecast Confidence is Medium.

Upper ridging occurs across the Wisconsin area Saturday, which
weakens Sunday. Surface high pressure should keep any
precipitation chances low saturday, although the ECMWF does bring
some light precipitation Sunday. The GFS does retrograde the
upper trough back west, bringing some precipitation into
southeast Wisconsin.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Isolated
thunderstorms will diminish around dusk.

MARINE...

Isolated thunderstorms will diminish around dusk. Winds and waves
will remain below small craft levels for the next few days.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Cronce
Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine...Marquardt
Tuesday Night through Monday...Hentz


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