Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 270712
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
312 AM EDT Fri Apr 27 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure exits to our northeast today then a series of
moisture starved cold fronts cross through Friday night and
Saturday. High pressure finally builds in Sunday into mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 258 AM Friday...Weak low pressure will track to our
northeast today. Rainfall so far has been sparse but a good slug
is now moving up the Greenbrier Valley into our northeast
counties, while sprinkles and patchy light rain linger as far
west as eastern Kentucky. The rain will exit this morning
leaving behind mostly cloudy skies through midday.

A few breaks are likely to develop in the clouds during the
afternoon as a cold front enters the middle Ohio Valley late in
the day. This front will bring with it a few showers as it
passes across our northern counties during the evening hours,
and it gets in early enough for a thunderstorm or two to develop
over our far northwest Ohio counties early in the evening.
After a brief lull, another front dives in late in the night
bringing another shot at a few showers across our northern
counties towards dawn on Saturday.

Temperatures today should approach the 70 degree mark in the
lowlands with some weak warm advection and breaks in the clouds.
Mixing overnight should also keep temps from bottoming out and
have forecast lows generally in the 40s to near 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 AM Friday...

All forecast guidance is in fairly decent agreement through the
short term period, with a cold front pushing through the region
on Saturday. This front is lacking in the moisture department,
so have just chance PoP across the north and mountains with
slight chance in the south. Cold air advection on NW flow could
bring some snow showers to the mountains through early Sunday
morning, with orographic accent squeezing out what little
moisture is available. For now, have left accumulating snow out
of the forecast, but some areas across the higher terrain may
pick up a half inch of snow. Cooler on Sunday behind the front,
but with clear skies and high sun April sun angle, we may make a
run to near 60 in parts of the Lowlands. The clear and cold
conditions are expected overnight Sunday into Monday morning and
frost/freeze headlines may be needed in some areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 310 AM Friday...

High pressure dominates through much of the long term. Warm
return flow starting the beginning of next will send our
temperatures back above normal with highs climbing into the 80s
by mid week. Our next chance for any decent rain will not come
again until the end of the week, but forecast guidance is still
unclear on how fast to progress this next front through the
region. For now, with this being day 7, will just go with a
blend of operational and ensemble guidance for this period,
which brings in low likely PoPs for the area on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 153 AM Friday...A low pressure system passing south and
east of the area will bring light rain from the southern coal
fields northeastward, through the central Appalachians this
morning. Ceilings are mainly VFR right now, however, guidance
points to deteriorating flight conditions through the remainder
of the pre-dawn hours at EKN and BKW as the low levels moisten
up. Also, left in the IFR fog mention at PKB and MVFR mist at
HTS toward dawn as mid level clouds on the back side of the
system possibly thin enough to allow that to develop, per
previous forecaster.

Drier air moving in from the west will clear out any fog west
and rain east after dawn, yielding VFR conditions for the midday
and afternoon hours. An upper level trough moving into the
middle Ohio Valley will help to create some afternoon
instability there with a few showers possible, but kept out any
mention of this in the TAFs for now with low coverage expected.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High except low at BKW and EKN.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of restrictions in clouds and rain may
vary overnight into Friday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 04/27/18
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    M    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible Saturday into Saturday night following a cold
frontal passage, mainly in the mountains, where snow showers
are possible overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABE/MPK
NEAR TERM...ABE
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...ABE



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