Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 270806
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
306 AM CDT Fri Apr 27 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A compact upper wave was currently dropping through the southern
Plains with some scattered showers that will remain south of the
area. Expect a pleasant day, with mostly sunny conditions and a
light northwesterly breeze as a weak surface boundary moves
through the area. The dry and seasonal weather will continue
through the weekend, with light winds and temperatures topping out
in the 70s for Saturday. Breezier south winds will return by
Sunday as the surface high slides east.

The upper low off the west coast will move inland over the
weekend, with a broad upper trof eventually developing across the
western states by early next week. This pattern will favor
increasing southerly flow/moisture return, with the dryline
initially setting up well west of the forecast area Monday into
Tuesday. It`s not out of the question that a dryline storm or two
could make a run toward the area late Tuesday, although best storm
chances continue to shape up during the Wednesday-Thursday time
frame as the broad positive tilt trof shifts gradually east.

Severe weather certainly appears possible by mid-week, along with
a heavy rainfall potential given the the active southwesterly flow
running parallel to an advancing surface boundary. Longer range
models are in reasonable agreement with the evolving pattern,
although we`ll give a slight nod to the slower ECMWF solution at
this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  49  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   74  50  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   73  46  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   73  42  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   68  43  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   70  47  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   72  47  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   70  46  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
F10   72  48  78  51 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   74  46  79  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....18


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